Taking Shaoxing City as the study area, tea tree phenological data and tea production data were collected to establish Wuniuzao tea phenological model, tea leaf picking amount model and economic output model by adopting the accumulated temperature method. A sequence of historical data was established by combining meteorological data, and the influences of climate change on the phenology of Wuniuzao tea tree, frost disaster and economic output were analyzed. The results showed that the increase in February’s average temperature over the past four decades led to the early arrival of Wuniuzao tea production period in Shaoxing City, with 1.34-2.48 d·10 a^-1 in advance, but the MannKendall tests failed to get a level of significance of 5% except in Shaoxing County. The significant increase in March’s average temperature shortened the picking period of Wuniuzao tea 1.03-1.29 d·10 a^-1, reduced economic output of 272.86-347.66 RMB Yuan·person^-1·10 a^-1, and the MannKendall tests of all counties achieved a level of significance of 5%. The influence of rainfall in March on the economic loss of Wuniuzao tea was not significantly associated with time. Spring frost was one of the main disasters affecting the economic output of Wuniuzao tea. Frost risk did not have a significant trend in the context of climate change, but the tea economic loss resulting from frost disaster showed a trend of decrease.