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生态学杂志 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (06): 1213-1220.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

华南地区1961—2008年夏季极端降水频次的时空变化

陆 虹**;何 慧;陈思蓉   

  1. 广西壮族自治区气候中心,南宁 530022
  • 出版日期:2010-06-10 发布日期:2010-06-10

Spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation frequency in summer over South China in 1961-2008.

LU Hong;HE Hui;CHEN Si-rong   

  1. Climate Center of Guangxi, Nanning 530022,China
  • Online:2010-06-10 Published:2010-06-10

摘要: 根据华南地区110个气象站1961—2008年逐日降水资料,以百分位方法定义极端降水事件的阈值,采用旋转经验正交函数、趋势系数计算、线性倾向计算、M-K检测、方差分析等方法,对华南地区夏季极端降水频次的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:整体上,华南地区极端降水频次呈显著的阶段性变化特征,20世纪70年代末—90年代初偏少,90年代中期至今偏多;从区域变化特征上可以分为6个主要空间区域,对各空间区域代表站的资料分析发现,桂东北区、桂东南到粤西区和海南南部夏季极端降水频次呈显著上升趋势,粤东区、桂西区和雷州区呈显著的阶段性变化特征,3个区域的共同特点是80年代偏少,90年代和21世纪初偏多;6个主要空间区域夏季极端降水频次周期变化特征显著,长周期是23 a、21 a,次之是17 a、16 a和12 a,短周期是5 a、4 a,6个空间区域中的5个都在90年代发生了显著增多的突变现象。

关键词: 土壤养分, 空间异质性, 生态系统, 景观性质

Abstract: Based on the 1961-2008 daily precipitation data from 110 meteorological stations in South China, the spatiotemporal characteristics of extremely heavy precipitation frequency in summer over South China were studied by the ways of REOF, trend coefficient, linear trend, M-K test and variance analysis, and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds were determined, according to the 95th percentiles of non-parametric distribution for different stations. The extremely precipitation events frequency anomaly in summer over South China was negative from late 1970s to early 1990s, and was positive after mid-1990s. Six sub-regions were divided, according to the spatial characteristics of extremely heavy precipitation frequency over South China. A significant upward trend of the extremely heavy precipitation events in summer appeared over northeast Guangxi, southeast Guangxi and west Guangdong, and south Hainan. Over east Guangdong, west Guangxi, and Leizhou area, the trend of extremely heavy precipitation events in summer was on the low side in the 1980s, and on the higher side between the 1990s and the beginning of 21st century. The periodic variation of the extreme precipitation frequency in summer in the six sub-regions was significant, with 23 and 21 years in long period, 17, 16, and 12 years in mid-term period, and 5 and 4 years in short cycle. Five of the six sub-regions appeared a significant increase in extreme precipitation frequency in 1990s.

Key words: Soil nutrients, Spatial heterogeneity, Ecosystem, Landscape characteristics