关键词: 薄壳山核桃, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 环境因子, 适生区

Abstract: To provide theoretical basis for the introduction and development of pecan (Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) K. Koch) in Jiangxi Province, based on North American distribution data, environmental and climate data, and terrain data, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the suitable distribution areas of pecan in Jiangxi Province under the current climatic conditions and to predict changes under three climate scenarios using 167 effective distribution points and 11 environmental factors. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of pecan in Jiangxi Province were analyzed. Results showed that the MaxEnt model had a high accuracy in predicting the suitable distribution areas of pecan, with the AUC value above 0.989. The suitable distribution areas were mainly affected by precipitation and temperature, with the precipitation of driest month (bio14), the mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), temperature seasonality (bio4), mean diurnal range (bio2), and the precipitation of wettest month (bio13) being the dominant ones. When the precipitation of driest month was 30-520 mm, the mean temperature of warmest quarter was 25-46 ℃, the temperature seasonality was 750-2600, the mean diurnal range was 10.4-21.9 ℃, and the precipitation of wettest month was 90-195 mm, they were beneficial for the growth of pecan. Under the current climatic conditions, most areas in Jiangxi Province are suitable for the growth of pecan. The potential highly suitable distribution areas and the potential suitable distribution areas accounted for 4.4% and 69.4% of the total area of Jiangxi Province, respectively. The suitable distribution areas were mainly distributed in hills, plains, and basins below an altitude of 500 m. Under the three climatic conditions, most areas of Jiangxi Province will still be suitable for growth of pecan, and the total suitable distribution areas will expand. Under the same climate scenario in the future, as time increases, the non-suitable areas will increase. As carbon emissions increase, potential highly suitable areas would move towards the western and southern regions of Jiangxi Province. Therefore, pecans have a wide range of adaptability, with the potential for introduction, cultivation, and promotion in Jiangxi Province.

Key words: pecan, MaxEnt model, climate change, environmental factor, suitable distribution area