关键词: 翅柄假脉蕨, 最大熵模型, 气候变化, 地理分布预测, 响应

Abstract: Crepidomanes latealatum is sensitive to environmental changes. It is important to study the changes in the potential distribution areas of C. latealatum under climate change scenarios for the conservation of its wild resources. Using MaxEnt and ArcGIS software, we predicted changes in the spatial distribution pattern of C. latealatum in the potential distribution area of the world under different climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) in the current (1970-2000) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) based on 1276 geographical distribution data of C. latealatum, combined with 19 climatic factors. We further identified the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. latealatum. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution areas of C. latealatum with high accuracy, with the AUC values of the training and testing sets being 0.962 and 0.966, respectively. The main environmental factors affecting its potential distribution were the warmest quarter, driest month precipitation, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality. C. latealatum is mainly distributed in 3°S-40°N, 95°E-140°E. The MaxEnt model predicted that under the current conditions, the suitable area of C. latealatum was mainly distributed in most parts of Asia, central and western Africa, and southeast Brazil, with a total suitable area of about 9.47×10⁶ km² and a highly suitable area of about 1.59×10⁶ km². Under the future climate scenario, the area of suitable areas in tropical East Asia and Africa will increase, while the area of suitable areas in temperate regions such as Europe and America will decrease. In addition, the area of suitable habitat for C. latealatum showed a general trend of first increasing and then decreasing over time under different climate scenarios. Under the background of global climate change, there are great challenges for the conservation of C. latealatum. Based on the current habitat of C. latealatum, protection zones should be established reasonably according to the local climate types, soil conditions, and other environmental factors, to ensure the adaptation of C. latealatum.

Key words: Crepidomanes latealatum, MaxEnt, climate change, prediction of geographical distribution, response