关键词: 气候变化, 马铃薯, 产量, 二次指数平滑法, 残差趋势法

Abstract: We examined the effects of climate change and human activities on potato yield by correlation analysis, path analysis and residual trend method based on the daily meteorological observation data of 20 meteorological stations, fertilizer application amount, effective irrigated area, and potato yield from 1982 to 2022 in Hebei Province. The results showed that daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, the temperature of 0 cm and 5 cm soil depth increased significantly, sunshine duration decreased significantly, the precipitation and air relative humidity did not change during potato growth period. The average fluctuation of potato meteorological yield was medium, with weak fluctuation during 2021-2022. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the increase of potato yield were 59.07% and 40.93%, respectively, indicating that climate change was the leading factor for the increases of potato yield.

Key words: climate change, potato, yield, quadratic exponential smoothing method, residual trend method