关键词: 褐马鸡, 气候变化, Biomod2物种分布模型, 生境质量, 生态连通性, 山西省

Abstract: Crossoptilon mantchuricum is a nationally first-class protected wild animal in China, the Provincial Bird of Shanxi Province, and a regional flagship species. Its survival and distribution are threatened by global climate change and habitat fragmentation. To assess spatiotemporal variations of suitable habitats, we employed an ensemble species distribution modeling framework (Biomod2), incorporating current climate data and two future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585). Additionally, habitat quality (via InVEST) and ecological connectivity (using MSPA and Circuitscape) were evaluated to identify ecological sources, corridors, pinch points (bottlenecks with high resistance in dispersal pathways), and barrier points (structural obstacles that significantly disrupt ecological flows). Results showed that the species’ current suitable habitat is mainly concentrated in Lüliang and Taihang Mountains. Precipitation factors (bio_12, bio_13) and temperature stability (bio_03) were the most influential environmental variables. Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitat of Crossoptilon mantchuricum shows an overall contraction trend with a northward shift (SSP126: 129.6 km; SSP585: 131.2 km). The connectivity analysis identified 68 ecological corridors and 736 pinch points, mainly in the central and southern regions, indicating poor connectivity. Based on these findings, we propose three conservation strategies: (1) strengthening protection of core habitats to reduce anthropogenic disturbance; (2) optimizing the layout of ecological corridors to enhance landscape connectivity; and (3) integrating climate change and land-use factors into adaptive, long-term conservation planning. These results provide essential insights for protecting Crossoptilon mantchuricum and other alpine birds under climate change.

Key words: Crossoptilon mantchuricum, climate change, Biomod2 species distribution model, habitat quality, ecological connectivity, Shanxi Province