关键词: 影响因素, 气候生产力变化, 增产潜力, 玉米, 气候情景

Abstract: The ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) in the arid region of Northwest China during the period of 2001-2012 was calculated by using an improved CASA model. Spatialtemporal characteristics of NPP were analyzed by employing linear trend analysis, standard deviation and Hurst index. The results showed that NPP in the study region had a strong seasonal variation, with a maximum in July and a minimum in December. Temporally, the vegetation NPP showed an increasing trend from 2001 to 2012 with a large fluctuation (lowest in 2006 and highest in 2012). The NPP values varied spatially. The most obvious increase of NPP took place in the temperate steppe region of Inner Mongolia, while the greatest decline of NPP occurred in the mountain grasslandconiferous forest region of Xinjiang, and the NPP was relatively stable in the temperate and warmtemperate desert region of Northwest China. Hurst index analysis showed that the overall change of NPP in the study region showed moderatestrong continuity characteristics, and the area with moderatestrong continuity accounted for 77.5% of the study region. The NPP variation mainly showed a tendency of healthy development. However, attention needs to be paid to 15.9% of the study region in which the NPP was continuously degraded or only slightly improved.

Key words: climate productivity change, influencing factors, maize, yield improving potential., climate scenarios