关键词: 花椒, 最大熵模型, ArcGIS, 潜在适生区, 气候变化

Abstract: Zunyi native Chinese prickly ash in Guizhou Province has excellent pericarp quality. Predicting the distribution of suitable areas is of great significance for extending the cultivation of this species. Based on the information of 33 distribution points and 27 ecological factors, we adopted the MaxEnt model optimized by ENMeval combined with ArcGIS to predict the distribution of suitable areas for Zunyi native Chinese prickly ash, and analyzed the main ecological factors affecting its distribution. The results showed that the receiver operating characteristic curve area (AUC) of the training sample under both 1970-2000 and 2050s climate conditions was higher than 0.9, indicating that the prediction result was reliable. The dominant ecological factors affecting the distribution of Zunyi native Chinese prickly ash were the precipitation of the driest month, the lowest temperature of the coldest month, isothermality, and the annual temperature range, with the cumulative contribution of those four factors being 97.3%. The areas of highly, moderately, and lowly suitable distribution of this species under the climate conditions of 1970-2000 were 1.35×10⁴, 0.93×10⁴, and 0.57×10⁴ km², respectively. The highly suitable areas were mainly distributed in Chishui, northern Xishui, Tongzi, and Daozhen in northern Zunyi. The highly suitable area of Zunyi native Chinese prickly ash will decrease in both RCP26 and RCP45 climate scenarios by 2050, with the main reduction areas being Xishui, Tongzi, and Daozhen.

Key words: Chinese prickly ash, maximum entropy model, ArcGIS, potentially suitable region, climate change