关键词: 氮磷迁移, SWAT模型, 计算机模拟, 遥感, 地理信息系统

Abstract: To understand the spatiotemporal expansion pattern of invasive species is of significance for the control of alien species invasion and spread. The aim of this research is to reconstruct the invasion and expansion processes and to predict the potential spread of Erigeron annuus, one of the threatening invasive plant species in China, and to identify and determine the possible modes of this species early introduction, subsequent expansion route, and potential spread. The reconstruction of the historical invasion processes of E. annuus in China showed that E. annuus first invaded Shanghai in 1886. After a lag phase of 50 years (1880s-1930s), this species expanded its distribution from China eastern coastal area toward inland, and until 2000, invaded 21 provinces. E. annuus would continue its expansion in China. Most areas in China, except Qinghai, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang, are likely to be invaded, and their adjacent areas, e.g., southern Hebei, northern Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, western-central Liaoning, and western Jilin, are most liable to be invaded, where urgent measures should be adopted to prevent further invasion of this species.

Key words: N and P transport, SWAT models, Computer modeling, Remote sensing, GIS