沈阳大连工业能源碳排放驱动因素及隐含碳流动

doi:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202508.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 作为世界上最大的能源消费国和二氧化碳排放国，中国2021年工业碳排放量已达全国碳排放总量的85.3%，而城市成为了中国工业降碳的关键区域与战略方向。本研究通过大量的文献收集和数据计算，以2010—2020年辽宁典型工业城市——沈阳和大连为对象，采用IPCC清单法和多区域投入产出法从工业碳排放数量核算、驱动因素分析与城市产业间隐含碳流动等视角，探讨沈阳和大连工业碳排放现状，以期为辽宁省各城市工业减排目标与合作降碳提供参照。结果表明：（1）2010—2020年大连工业碳排放量增加572.46万t，年均增长率为3.77%；沈阳工业碳排放量减少14.67万t，年均增长率为-0.1%，能源消费主要集中于原煤和电力；（2）能源强度对沈阳、大连的工业碳排放起抑制作用，分别为-50.41%和-20.51%；而能源结构和产出规模对沈阳工业碳排放的促进作用分别为1.81%和47.79%，对大连的工业碳排放的促进作用为1.42%和78.07%；（3）沈阳通过产业链向大连的隐含碳排放净转出量为63.43万t；沈阳对大连在电力热力的生产和供应业（88.89万t）、煤炭采选业（26.97万t）的隐含碳转出>大连对沈阳在电力热力的生产和供应业（52.49万t）、化学行业（9.09万t）。

关键词: 工业能源碳排放, 驱动力, 隐含碳, 多区域投入产出模型, 工业城市

Abstract: As the largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter in the world, China’s industrial CO₂ emission has reached to 85.3% of the country’s total CO₂ emission amount. Cities have become the critical area and strategic direction for industrial CO₂ reduction. Through literature review and data calculation, we calculated the total amount of industrial CO₂ emission and analyzed the driving factors for two typical industrial cities in Liaoning Province, Shenyang and Dalian, from 2010 to 2020, using IPCC inventory method. Multi-regional input-output model was used to explore embodied CO₂ flows between Shenyang and Dalian. Our objectives were to clarify the current situation of industrial CO₂ emission of the two cities, aiming to provide some reference information about industrial CO₂ reduction and cooperation for other Liaoning’s cities in the future. The results showed that: (1) During 2010-2020, industrial CO₂ emission of Dalian increased by 572.46×10⁴ t with a 3.77% average annual growth rate, while industrial CO₂ emissions of Shenyang decreased by 14.67×10⁴ t with an average annual growth rate of -0.1%. Energy consumption was mainly concentrated in raw coal and electricity. (2) Energy intensity exhibited an inhibiting effect on CO₂ emission for Shenyang and Dalian, being -50.41% and -20.51%, respectively. On the contrary, energy structure and output scale had a motivating effect, being 1.81% and 47.79% for Shenyang and 1.42% and 78.07% for Dalian, respectively. (3) Net transfer amount of embodied CO₂ emissions through industrial chains from Shenyang to Dalian was 63.43×10⁴ t. Embodied CO₂ flows of electricity, heat production and supply industry (88.89×10⁴ t), coal mining industry (26.97×10⁴ t) from Shenyang to Dalian exceeded those of electricity, heat production and supply industry (52.49×10⁴ t), and chemical industry (9.09×10⁴ t) from Dalian to Shenyang.

Key words: industrial energy related carbon emission, driving force, embodied carbon, multi-regional input-output model, industrial city

宝玉宁, 仲弘历, 于晓曼, 刘鸣达. 沈阳大连工业能源碳排放驱动因素及隐含碳流动[J]. 生态学杂志, 2025, 44(8): 2771-2778.

BAO Yuning, ZHONG Hongli, YU Xiaoman, LIU Mingda. Driving forces of industrial carbon emission and embodied carbon flows in Shenyang and Dalian.[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2025, 44(8): 2771-2778.

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沈阳大连工业能源碳排放驱动因素及隐含碳流动

Driving forces of industrial carbon emission and embodied carbon flows in Shenyang and Dalian.

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