关键词: 菲律宾蛤仔, 生源要素, 收支, 生长余力, 生长效率, 庄河海域

Abstract: Ecological footprint is an important evaluating indicator of sustainable development. Based on the latest algorithm and improved model of ecological footprint, ecological footprint was calculated and analyzed in order to understand the dynamic change of ecological deficit in Shaanxi Province from 2002 to 2012. The gray system GM (1, 1) model was used to establish ecological deficit and per capita ecological deficit forecast models for forecasting the future sustainable development of Shaanxi Province. Meanwhile, principal component analysis was used to study the driving force of ecological footprint’s growth. The results showed that ecological footprint kept growing during 2002-2012 in Shaanxi Province, and carbon footprint made the largest contribution to the growth. The current development status of Shaanxi Province was unsustainable according to its stabling biocapacity and increasing ecological deficit. If the development and consumption patterns remained stable, the ecological deficit and per capita ecological deficit would continue to rise in the future in Shaanxi Province. The rapid urbanization was the most important driving force of ecological footprint growth. Thus in the future, for the sustainable development of Shaanxi Province, we need to vigorously develop low carbon economy, save energy, reduce emissions and lower our dependence on fossil fuels.

Key words: Ruditapes philippinarum, biogenic element, budget, scope for growth, growth efficiency, Zhuanghe coast.