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生态学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 2936-2944.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202109.024

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于MaxEnt模型预测戴褐臂金龟在中国的潜在适生区

施雯1,朱恩骄1,王宇宸1,马方舟2,和秋菊1,易传辉3*   

  1. (1生物多样性保护学院， 西南林业大学， 昆明 650224； 2国家环境保护生物安全重点实验室， 生态环境部南京环境科学研究所， 南京 210042； 3云南生物多样性研究院， 西南林业大学， 昆明 650224）
  • 出版日期:2021-09-10 发布日期:2021-09-17

Prediction of potentially suitable distribution area of Propomacrus davidi Deyrolle in China based on MaxEnt model.

SHI Wen1, ZHU En-jiao1, WANG Yu-chen1, MA Fang-zhou2, HE Qiu-ju1, YI Chuan-hui3*   

  1. (1College of Biodiversity Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China; 2Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment; National Key Laboratory of Biosafety, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; 3Yunnan Academy of Biodiversity, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China).
  • Online:2021-09-10 Published:2021-09-17

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摘要： 为濒危物种戴褐臂金龟保护与种群恢复提供理论依据，基于地理分布记录和环境因子变量数据，采用MaxEnt模型，利用18个有效分布点和19个环境因子，模拟了戴褐臂金龟当代、未来（2050s、2070s）RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种气候情景下在中国的适生分布区，并筛选出影响分布的主导因子。结果显示，MaxEnt模型模拟预测精度较高，AUC值0.966以上；在当前气候条件下，戴褐臂金龟高适生分布区主要分布于江西东北部与浙江、福建交界地区，江西南部与广东交界地区，台湾西北部地区。中适生区主要分布于高适生区覆盖的边缘。未来气候条件下，戴褐臂金龟的中高适生区总体格局基本不变，但有向湖南等地扩散的趋势，适生面积有所增加。影响戴褐臂金龟潜在地理分布的主导因子为最冷季平均降雨量、最湿季降雨量、最干季度均温、最冷季度均温、最干月降雨量。戴褐臂金龟预测适生分布区未来有扩大趋势。

关键词: 戴褐臂金龟, 潜在适生区, 濒危, MaxEnt, ArcGIS

Abstract: To provide theoretical basis for the conservation and population restoration of the endangered species Propomacrus davidiDeyrolle, we simulated its contemporary and future (2050s, 2070s) suitable distribution areas in China under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) and screened out the dominant factors affecting the distribution, using the MaxEnt model with 18 effective distribution points and 19 environmental factors. Results showed that the MaxEnt model had a high accuracy in simulation prediction, with the AUC value above 0.966. Under current climatic conditions, the highly suitable areas of P. davidiare mainly distributed in the border area of northeast Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian, the border area between the south Jiangxi and Guangdong, and the northwest area of Taiwan. The moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed on the edge of those highly suitable areas. Under future climatic conditions, the overall pattern of the moderately-highly suitable areas of P. davidi will basically remain unchanged, but with a trend of spreading to Hunan Province and other places, and an increase of the total suitable area. The dominant factors affecting the potential geographic distribution of P. davidi are the mean rainfall in the coldest season, the rainfall in the wettest season, the mean temperature in the driest season, the mean temperature in the coldest season, and the rainfall in the driest month. In conclusion, the suitable distribution area of P. davidi will expand in the future.

Key words: Propomacrus davidi, potentially suitable distribution area, endangered, MaxEnt, ArcGIS.

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