关键词: 戴褐臂金龟, 潜在适生区, 濒危, MaxEnt, ArcGIS

Abstract: To provide theoretical basis for the conservation and population restoration of the endangered species Propomacrus davidiDeyrolle, we simulated its contemporary and future (2050s, 2070s) suitable distribution areas in China under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) and screened out the dominant factors affecting the distribution, using the MaxEnt model with 18 effective distribution points and 19 environmental factors. Results showed that the MaxEnt model had a high accuracy in simulation prediction, with the AUC value above 0.966. Under current climatic conditions, the highly suitable areas of P. davidiare mainly distributed in the border area of northeast Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian, the border area between the south Jiangxi and Guangdong, and the northwest area of Taiwan. The moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed on the edge of those highly suitable areas. Under future climatic conditions, the overall pattern of the moderately-highly suitable areas of P. davidi will basically remain unchanged, but with a trend of spreading to Hunan Province and other places, and an increase of the total suitable area. The dominant factors affecting the potential geographic distribution of P. davidi are the mean rainfall in the coldest season, the rainfall in the wettest season, the mean temperature in the driest season, the mean temperature in the coldest season, and the rainfall in the driest month. In conclusion, the suitable distribution area of P. davidi will expand in the future.

Key words: Propomacrus davidi, potentially suitable distribution area, endangered, MaxEnt, ArcGIS.