关键词: 鲜食杏, MaxEnt模型, 气候适宜性区划, 主导环境因子

Abstract: To identify the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of fruit apricot cultivation, we collected the distribution data of fruit apricot cultivation in Chinese mainland and daily weather data from 2303 weather stations from 1981 to 2020. We selected several natural factors affecting the potential distribution of fruit apricot cultivation, including heat condition, water supply condition, sunshine duration condition, tolerance to extreme weather/disaster, and topographic condition. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and GIS technology were jointly used. By using natural break point classification method, the suitability of climate regions for fruit apricot cultivation was divided into four grades: unsuitable, subsuitable, suitable, and optimal. The threshold values of dominant environmental factors for each suitability grade were determined. The results showed that annual precipitation, altitude, probability of spring frost, and mean temperature of the coldest month were the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of fruit apricot cultivation in Chinese mainland. The suitable areas for fruit apricot planting were mainly concentrated in North China, Loess Plateau, Northwest China, and Southwest China, which is consistent with current geographical locations with successful fruit apricot cultivation. The optimal areas for fruit apricot cultivation were mainly distributed in the Loess Plateau, along the Ancient Yellow River Course, and the Bohai Bay area. Our results can provide a scientific basis for rational apricot cultivation planning in China.

Key words: fruit apricot, maximum entropy model, climatic suitability regionalization, dominant environmental factor.