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生态学杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1041-1049.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202205.009

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国东北兴安落叶松林空间分布及其对气候变化的响应

张喜娟1,2,陈琛1,2,郜飞飞1,2,原树生1,韩士杰3,倪震东1,于景华1*   

  1. (1中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016; 2中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;3河南大学, 河南开封 475000)
  • 出版日期:2022-06-10 发布日期:2022-06-07

Spatial distribution of Larix gmelinii forests in Northeast China and its response to climate change.   

  1. (1Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China; 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, Henan, China).
  • Online:2022-06-10 Published:2022-06-07

摘要: 气候变化直接影响着植被地理分布。兴安落叶松林主要分布于中国东北的大、小兴安岭林区,地处北方针叶林南缘,对水热条件变化极为敏感。本文利用MAXENT模型模拟兴安落叶松林空间分布现状、不同排放情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下2050s和2070s的潜在空间分布以及其适生区对气候变化的响应。结果表明:对兴安落叶松林地理分布起主要贡献的环境因子包括温度年度范围、坡向、温度季节性变化、最干燥季度的平均温度、最冷月份的最低温度,5个因子的累积贡献率达83.80%;兴安落叶松林主要分布在黑龙江省大兴安岭地区和内蒙古呼伦贝尔市东北部(即大兴安岭国有林区),以及黑龙江省黑河市和伊春市(即小兴安岭国有重点林区的中北部);无论哪种未来气候情景,兴安落叶松林在2050年和2070年新增适生区较少,大兴安岭东麓、小兴安岭适生区面积下降较多,适生区丧失率为15.06%~38.87%,下降区域主要为黑龙江省黑河市和伊春市。应用多分类Logistic回归方法探讨了兴安落叶松林空间分布对气候变化的响应,结果表明,温度季节性变化的降低、降水量的季节变化的降低、最干燥季降水的升高、最暖月最高温度的升高是兴安落叶松林适生区缩小的主要原因。

关键词: 兴安落叶松林, MAXENT, 空间格局, 气候变化

Abstract: Climate change directly affects the geographical distribution of vegetation. Larix gmelinii forest is mainly distributed in Greater Khingan Range and Xiao Hinggan Range in Northeast China. It is located in the southern edge of the boreal forest, with high sensitivity to changes in water and heat conditions. In this study, MAXENT model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of L. gmelinii forest in Northeast China, the potential spatial distribution of different representative concentration paths (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050s and 2070s, and the responses of suitable areas of L. gmelinii forest to climate change. Results showed that environmental factors that mainly contribute to the geographical distribution of L. gmelinii forest included annual temperature range, aspect, seasonal temperature change, mean temperature in the driest season, and minimum temperature in the coldest month. The cumulative contribution rate of those five factors reached 83.80%. Part of L. gmelinii forests in Northeast China are mainly distributed in Greater Khingan Range of Heilongjiang Province and the northern part of Hulunbeier City in Inner Mongolia, which is dominated by the state-owned forest in Greater Khingan Range. The other part is dominated by the state-owned forest in the central and northern part of Xiao Hinggan Range in Heihe City and Yichun City in Heilongjiang Province. Under all kinds of future climate scenarios, the newly increased suitable area of L. gmelinii forest would be less in 2050 and 2070. The suitable area of the east side of Greater Khingan Range and the Xiao Hinggan Range would show stronger decrease. The loss rate of the suitable area would be 15.06%-38.87%, concentrated in Heihe City and Yichun City of Heilongjiang Province. The response of L. gmeliniiforest to climate change was analyzed using the multi-classification Logistic regression method. Results showed that the decrease of seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation, the increase of precipitation in the driest season, and the increase of the highest temperature in the warmest month were the main reasons accounting for the reduction of suitable area of L. gmelinii forest.

Key words: Larix gmelinii forest, MAXENT, spatial pattern, climate change.