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生态学杂志 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 3766-3773.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202011.023

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球气候变化背景下秦艽生态适宜性预测

檀逸虹1,2,张喜娟1,2,原树生1,于景华1*   

  1. (1中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016;2中国科学院大学, 北京 100049)
  • 出版日期:2020-11-11 发布日期:2021-05-10

Prediction of the ecological suitability of Gentiana macrophylla Pall. under scenarios of global climate change.

TAN Yi-hong1,2, ZHANG Xi-juan1,2, YUAN Shu-sheng1, YU Jing-hua1*#br#   

  1. (1Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China; 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China).
  • Online:2020-11-11 Published:2021-05-10

摘要: 本文利用地理信息技术(GIS)和最大熵模型(MaxEnt),选用2050s和2070s时期下不同代表浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5),模拟三级珍稀濒危药用植物秦艽(Gentiana macrophylla Pall.)当前和全球气候变化背景下生态适宜性变化,发现影响秦艽分布的主要环境因子为年降水量、最干旱月份降水量、海拔和最冷月份的最低温度,这与秦艽喜湿耐寒、怕涝等生长习性相关。当前适生区面积约为143万km2;未来气候变化下,随着RCP浓度升高,适生区面积明显减少,仅为现有的17.3%~41.5%,生态适宜性等级变化明显。适生区的重心位置也由原来的山西省和甘肃省等中国西北部向东北部大兴安岭地区和呼伦贝尔市等地区偏移,未来气候干旱条件加剧,使得一些原适生区不适宜秦艽生长。为此,提出关于秦艽保护的2点建议:(1)使用就地保护策略,对现适生区建立自然保护区或植物公园,或在原生境利用种子和苗开展人工补植;(2)利用迁地保护思想,进行选种育苗工作,将秦艽基因入库,并考虑在现秦艽适生区重心和未来气候下同属适生区的地区大力发展秦艽种植产业。

关键词: 秦艽, MaxEnt, 生态适宜性, 气候变化

Abstract: Following three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of Gentiana macrophyllaPall., a third-grade rare and endangered medicinal plant species, under current and future scenarios of global climate. The results showed that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of G. macrophylla were annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, altitude, and the lowest temperature in the coldest month, which are related to the growth characteristics of G. macrophyllaincluding moisture-tolerance, cold-tolerance, and waterloggingintolerance. Current suitable area was 143×104 km2. Under the future climate change characterized by increasing RCP concentration, the area of suitable area will be reduced to 17.3%-41.5% of the current area. The ecological suitability level significantly changed. Its distribution center shifted from northwest China (including Shanxi and Gansu Province) to the northeastern China (such as the Greater Khingan Mountains and Hulunbuir city). Due to the drying climate in the future, some of the original suitable areas are not suitable for G. macrophylla. Based on those findings, we proposed that (1) Use in-situ conservation strategies to establish natural reserves or botanical parks within the current suitable areas, or carry out in situ plantation; (2) Adopt the idea of ex-situ conservation to breeding, and put the G. macrophylla genes into the database. Meanwhile, G. macrophylla planting industry needs to be widely developed in the current centers of suitable areas and the future suitable area.

Key words: Gentiana macrophylla Pall., MaxEnt, ecological suitability, climate change.