关键词: 秦艽, MaxEnt, 生态适宜性, 气候变化

Abstract: Following three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of Gentiana macrophyllaPall., a third-grade rare and endangered medicinal plant species, under current and future scenarios of global climate. The results showed that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of G. macrophylla were annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, altitude, and the lowest temperature in the coldest month, which are related to the growth characteristics of G. macrophyllaincluding moisture-tolerance, cold-tolerance, and waterloggingintolerance. Current suitable area was 143×10⁴ km². Under the future climate change characterized by increasing RCP concentration, the area of suitable area will be reduced to 17.3%-41.5% of the current area. The ecological suitability level significantly changed. Its distribution center shifted from northwest China (including Shanxi and Gansu Province) to the northeastern China (such as the Greater Khingan Mountains and Hulunbuir city). Due to the drying climate in the future, some of the original suitable areas are not suitable for G. macrophylla. Based on those findings, we proposed that (1) Use in-situ conservation strategies to establish natural reserves or botanical parks within the current suitable areas, or carry out in situ plantation; (2) Adopt the idea of ex-situ conservation to breeding, and put the G. macrophylla genes into the database. Meanwhile, G. macrophylla planting industry needs to be widely developed in the current centers of suitable areas and the future suitable area.

Key words: Gentiana macrophylla Pall., MaxEnt, ecological suitability, climate change.