Abstract: Understanding the current status of species populations and the changes of their potential distribution area under climate change is crucial for elucidating the mechanisms of species endangerment and carrying out conservation practices. Coptis chinensis var. brevisepala is a perennial herb endemic to China, which is ranked as second-class in the List of National Key Protected Wild Plants. In this study, the wild C. chinensis var. brevisepala populations in Guangdong Province were investigated, and MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS were used to analyze the potential distribution area under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) in three different periods (1970-2000, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060) based on 60 distribution records and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that C. chinensis var. brevisepala were mainly distributed in the eastern and northern regions of Guangdong Province. Most populations were characterized by a small number of individuals and incomplete age structure. Precipitation in the coldest quarter (63%) and elevation (21.1%) were the two environmental factors with the strongest impact on the habitat adaptability of C. chinensis var. brevisepala. The potential distribution area of C. chinensis var. brevisepala will generally expand in the periods of 2021-2040 and 2041-2060. However, the large emission of greenhouse gases could still have a negative impact on their habitat adaptability. The Tianmu Mountains-Yandang Mountains area and the eastern region of the Nanling Mountains-Xuefeng Mountains were the hotspots for the future changes in distribution area, and the conservation works there should be prioritized. During the period of 1970-2000, about 43.1% of the area of moderately and highly suitable areas in Guangdong were directly covered by natural reserves. It is suggested that measures should be taken in the planning of nature reserves to further expand the protected area in Guangdong. In addition, germplasm resource gardens should be established in the northern part of Guangdong, and artificial propagation and cultivation should be strengthened to protect and rationally develop and utilize the wild population resources.

Key words: MaxEnt model, potential distribution area, protection gap analysis, endangered plant conservation