Abstract: Based on the current 308 sites of tea green leafhopper (Empoasca onukii Matsuda) recorded in China and 7 environmental variables, a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distributions and its suitable degree under two climate scenarios (SSP2_45 and SSP5_85). The area under curve (AUC) value was 0.904, indicating that the accuracy of the model was good and the outcomes were reliable. The main environmental variables estimated by the Jackknife method were the lowest temperature in the coldest month (bio6), the mean monthly temperature difference between day and night (bio2), the precipitation in the driest month (bio14), and the precipitation in the wettest season (bio16). Currently, the highly suitable regions of tea green leafhopper were mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Hainan. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable regions would be expanding and move northward. The suitable region is the largest under the SSP5_85 climate scenario in 2070, with a 21.1% increase compared to the current suitable area. Given the wide distribution of tea green leafhopper in most regions of China, accurate predictions of its distribution are vital, and timely control measures should be taken to protect the high-quality production of tea.

Key words: tea green leafhopper, climate change, MaxEnt model, habitat suitability analysis.