Abstract: The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is highly ecologically sensitive and vulnerable to global climate change. Predicting the spatial and temporal variations of the habitats of dominant species is crucial for ecological restoration and the formulation of conservation measures. Using the Maxent model, we combined distribution records and bioclimatic variables to simulate and predict the potential distribution areas of Asterothamnus centraliasiaticus, a dominant species in the temperate desert steppe of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, under different climatic scenarios. Our results showed that temperature variables were the primary climatic constraints affecting the distribution of A. centraliasiaticus, while precipitation variables had a secondary impact. The suitable temperature range for growth was 16.5-38.5 ℃, with precipitation in the warmest season varying from 55.0-1885.5 mm. Population of A. centraliasiaticus has been expanding from the mid-Holocene to the present, mainly in the arid and semi-arid areas along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The total habitat area of A. centraliasiaticus is predicted to decline in the future, particularly in the moderately and highly suitable habitats. Furthermore, the population is predicted to migrate gradually eastwards. Overall, our study highlights the challenges faced by A. centraliasiaticus in terms of survival and reproduction under global climate change. We recommend establishing relevant policies and regulations based on its migration trend to ensure the continuity of its habitat and develop effective conservation measures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, temperate desert grassland, Asterothamnus centraliasiaticus, MaxEnt modeling, suitable habitat distribution