关键词: 黄土高原, 冬小麦, 降水量, 气温, 产量

Abstract: Clarifying the characteristics of climate change and its impacts on wheat yield will provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of agricultural adaptation plans to climate change. Here, we analyzed the changes of precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration, potential evapotranspiration,  aridity index, and their impacts on growth stage and yield of winter wheat in Linfen and Yuncheng from 1957 to 2015, two main wheat production areas in Southern Shanxi. The results showed that a downward trend of annual precipitation and sunshine duration was found during wheat growth stage from 1957 to 2015. Precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat showed a decreasing trend before winter, an increasing trend from wintering stage to jointing stage, and a decreasing trend from jointing stage to anthesis stage. The annual mean daily temperature, mean daily maximum temperature, and mean daily minimum temperature in the two places increased with a rate of 0.24-0.37, 0.16-0.18, and 0.37-0.60 ℃·(10 a)^-1, respectively. The accumulated temperature of winter wheat in each growth period showed a significant upward trend. Among them, the effective accumulated temperature of Linfen and Yuncheng during the growth period of ≥3 ℃ increased with a rate of 76.94 and 63.10 ℃·(10 a)^-1, respectively; the active accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) increased at a rate of 74.35 and 57.20℃·(10 a)^-1, respectively. The potential evapotranspiration and aridity index of Linfen weredecreasing, while that of Yuncheng was increasing. The duration of winter wheat wintering stage in Linfen and Yuncheng decreased with a rate of 4.56 and 3.09 d·(10 a)^-1, respectively. The yield of winter wheat in Linfen and Yuncheng increased at the rate of 645.4 and 528.8 kg·hm^-2·(10 a)^-1, respectively. Results of correlation analysis between yield and various meteorological factors showed that winter wheat yield was significantly correlated with accumulated temperature, annual daily mean temperature, mean daily minimum temperature, sunshine duration during growth period, and precipitation during wintering stage to joining stage. Yield was significantly positively correlated with mean daily maximum temperature, and was significantly or extremely significantly negatively correlated with potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in Linfen. In short, climate in Southern Shanxi is becoming warm and dry. Current climate change is generally beneficial to wheat production. To further reduce the adverse effects of climate change, wheat varieties with long growth period and weak winter characteristics can be introduced and cultivated.

Key words: Loess Plateau, winter wheat, precipitation, temperature, yield.