基于Copula函数的西南地区一季稻高温干旱复合事件演变特征

doi:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202607.003

生态学杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (7): 2447-2457.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202607.003

基于Copula函数的西南地区一季稻高温干旱复合事件演变特征

雷智雯¹,陈东东^2,3*,栗晓玮⁴,张祎⁵

(¹四川省气候中心，成都 610072； ²四川省农业气象中心/丘区农业绿色高效节水技术与装备四川省重点实验室，成都 610072； ³中国气象局-中国农业大学农业应对气候变化联合实验室，北京 100193； ⁴重庆第二师范学院，重庆 400065； ⁵中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081)

出版日期:2026-07-10 发布日期:2026-07-17

Evolution characteristics of compound heat and drought events for single-season rice in Southwest China based on Copula function.

LEI Zhiwen¹, CHEN Dongdong^2,3*, LI Xiaowei⁴, ZHANG Yi⁵

(¹Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, China; ²The Agrometeorological Center of Sichuan Province/Environment-Friendly and Efficient Water-Saving Technology and Equipment for Hilly Agriculture Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China; ³Joint Laboratory of Agriculture Coping with Climate Change of China Meteorological Administration and China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; ⁴Chongqing University of Education, Chongqing 400065, China; ⁵Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China).

Online:2026-07-10 Published:2026-07-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于西南地区一季稻种植区351个气象站1980—2022年逐日气象观测资料和一季稻关键生育期资料，按生育期分区分析一季稻关键生育期高温干旱复合事件的时空特征，并利用Copula函数构建各分区高温强度和干旱强度的二维联合累积概率分布，分析高温干旱复合事件的重现期及其发生规律。结果表明：西南地区一季稻种植区高温干旱复合事件发生频率在空间分布上，抽穗灌浆期与灌浆成熟期均呈现西低东高、北高南低的特征，且前者高发区集中于重庆、贵州北部和东部以及四川的攀西局部，后者高发区略南移且范围缩小；1980—2022年，抽穗灌浆期与灌浆成熟期复合事件发生频率均增多，自1990年起，抽穗灌浆期中度以上复合事件增幅更大，灌浆成熟期重度复合事件增加更多；通过Copula函数拟合，多数分区高温强度与干旱强度的联合分布最优拟合为Student’s t函数，Frank和Gumbel函数次之；复合事件的重现期随高温和干旱强度的增大而增加，且干旱强度的增加对复合事件影响更大；抽穗灌浆期更易发生复合事件，灌浆成熟期则更易出现等级高的复合事件。本研究阐明了高温干旱复合事件在一季稻关键生育期的演变特征，为水稻生产防灾减灾提供科学依据。

关键词: 西南地区, 一季稻, 高温干旱复合事件, Copula函数

Abstract: Based on daily meteorological data from 351 stations in single-season rice planting areas of Southwest China and the data of critical phenological stages of single-season rice during 1980-2022, we examined the spatiotemporal variations of compound events of heat and drought events during critical phenological stages of single-season rice in subregions (by dividing the region according to the phenological stages). The Copula function was employed to construct two-dimensional joint cumulative probability distributions of high-temperature intensity and drought intensity for each subregion, and the recurrence intervals and occurrence patterns of compound events were analyzed. The results showed that the frequency of compound events during both the heading-filling and filling-maturity stages followed a pattern of “lower in west, higher in east” and “lower in south, higher in north”. High-frequency areas during the heading-filling stage were concentrated in Chongqing, northern and eastern Guizhou, and parts of Panxi in Sichuan, while those during the filling-maturity stage slightly shifted southward and become less extensive. From 1980 to 2022, the frequency of compound events during both stages increased, with a more significant increase in moderate-to-severe events during heading-filling stage starting from 1990 and a larger increase in severe compound events during filling-maturity stage. Student’s t Copula function optimally fitted the joint distribution of heat intensity and drought intensity in most subregions, followed by Frank and Gumbel Copula functions. The recurrence intervals of compound events increased with intensified heat and drought intensities, with drought intensity exerting a stronger influence. Compound events occurred more frequently during the heading-filling stage, while higher-intensity events predominated during the filling-maturity stage. This study clarified the evolutionary characteristics of compound heat and drought events during the critical phenological stages of single-season rice, providing a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in rice production.

Key words: Southwest China, single-season rice, compound event of heat and drought, Copula function

雷智雯, 陈东东, 栗晓玮, 张祎. 基于Copula函数的西南地区一季稻高温干旱复合事件演变特征[J]. 生态学杂志, 2026, 45(7): 2447-2457.

LEI Zhiwen, CHEN Dongdong, LI Xiaowei, ZHANG Yi. Evolution characteristics of compound heat and drought events for single-season rice in Southwest China based on Copula function.[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2026, 45(7): 2447-2457.

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[3]	张倩,韩贵琳,柳满,阳昆桦,刘强. 贵州普定喀斯特关键带土壤磷分布特征及其控制因素 [J]. 生态学杂志, 2019, 38(2): 321-328.
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基于Copula函数的西南地区一季稻高温干旱复合事件演变特征

Evolution characteristics of compound heat and drought events for single-season rice in Southwest China based on Copula function.

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