关键词: 城乡融合发展试验区, 景观生态风险, 空间杜宾模型, 影响因素

Abstract: The urban-rural integration pilot area is characterized by complex resource and element flows, as well as dynamic landscape transformations. Scientifically assessing the evolution of ecological risk and influencing factors is crucial for optimizing urban-rural land resource management and facilitating regional ecological restoration. In this study, we employed an improved landscape ecological risk assessment model and the Spatial Durbin Model to analyze the evolution of ecological risk in Chongqing urban-rural integration pilot area from 2002 to 2022. We identified the driving factors and spatial effects of ecological risk at different stages and within high-risk clusters. The results showed that landscape changes were relatively moderate during the initial exploration period of urban-rural integration (2002-2012). Significant changes occurred during the reform deepening period (2012-2017) and intensive advancement period (2017-2022), with comprehensive landscape dynamics reaching 1.08% and 1.00%, respectively. Throughout the study period, the regional ecological risk initially increased and then decreased, peaking at a high-risk level during the reform deepening period. Spatially, ecological risk followed a pattern of lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast. The towns adjacent to Chongqing central urban area showed high volatility in risk levels. Ecological risk in the pilot area demonstrated positive spatial clustering, with significant inter-town interactions in ecological risk. The spatial effects of natural and human factors on regional ecological risks varied by stages. Human activity intensity on the land surface consistently emerged as the leading positive factor, the cultivated land area was a significant negative factor, and the maximum temperature (Max_tem) and GDP gradually became important stressors. The spatial effects of human activity intensity on the land surface, along with the spillover effects of Max_tem and habitat quality, were the primary drivers of high ecological risk clustering in towns within the pilot area. Therefore, future strategies should emphasize collaborative ecological risk governance across regions to promote the coordinated development of urban-rural human activities and resource management. This approach is crucial for establishing a stable and sustainable regional ecological security pattern.

Key words: urban-rural integration development pilot area, landscape ecological risk, Spatial Durbin Model, influencing factor