黄河水源涵养区NDVI变化驱动因素及多情景预测

doi:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202602.003

生态学杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 372-382.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202602.003

• 湿地生态与可持续利用专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

黄河水源涵养区NDVI变化驱动因素及多情景预测

李榕¹,朱睿^1*,方春爽²,杨华庆¹,温欣竹³,尹振良^2,3*

(¹兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院/地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究中心/甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室，兰州 730000； ²中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室/国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心，兰州 730000； ³山东科技大学安全与环境工程学院，山东青岛 266000）

出版日期:2026-02-10 发布日期:2026-08-01

Driving factors and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI change in the Yellow River water conservation area.

LI Rong¹, ZHU Rui^1*, FANG Chunshuang², YANG Huaqing¹, WEN Xinzhu³, YIN Zhenliang^2,3*

(¹College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University/National and Local Joint Engineering Research Center for Geographic Condition Monitoring Technology Application/Gansu Provincial Geographic Condition Monitoring Engineering Laboratory, Lanzhou 730000, China; ²Key Laboratory of Ecological Security and Sustainable Development in Arid Areas/National Glacier, Frozen Soil, and Desert Science Data Center, Northwest Institute of EcoEnvironment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; ³College of Safety and Environmental Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266000, Shandong, China).

Online:2026-02-10 Published:2026-08-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 未来气候变化下，预测黄河水源涵养区植被动态变化对生态保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于MODIS NDVI数据，通过Theil-Sen趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验研究2000—2020年研究区内NDVI时空变化特征，采用地理收敛交叉映射模型对研究区NDVI变化与其影响因子的双向因果关系进行分析，并基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型对未来NDVI变化进行多情景预测。结果表明：(1) 2000—2020年，研究区NDVI在时间上呈现波动上升趋势，增长速率为0.025 10 a^-1，在空间上呈现空间异质性并且植被改善的面积大于植被退化的面积；(2) NDVI变化与气温、降水的因果关系最强，表现为气温、降水对NDVI变化的影响较强，同时NDVI变化对降水的影响也较强；(3) 情景模拟显示，自然发展情景和SSP24.5情景下，2030年植被改善幅度较大，较高植被覆盖区及高度植被覆盖区面积较2020年增长1.31万km²和1.29万km²；经济发展情景和SSP5-8.5情景下，植被改善幅度较小，较高植被覆盖区及高度植被覆盖区面积都仅增长0.94万km²；生态保护情景下，植被改善幅度最大，较高植被覆盖区及高度植被覆盖区面积增长2万km²。研究结果可为黄河水源涵养区生态恢复和建设提供一定的理论支持，并根据区域实际情况提出相应对策和建议。

关键词: NDVI, 地理收敛交叉映射模型, GeoSOS-FLUS模型, 多情景预测, 黄河水源涵养区

Abstract: Projecting vegetation dynamics in the Yellow River water conservation area under future climate change is essential for guiding ecological conservation and regional sustainable development. Utilizing MODIS NDVI data from 2000 to 2020, we examined the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation cover by integrating Theil-Sen trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test. We further quantified the bidirectional causal relationships between NDVI changes and key climatic drivers using the geographic convergent cross mapping model, and projected the NDVI changes under multiple scenarios via the GeoSOS-FLUS model. The results showed that: (1) During 2000-2020, NDVI exhibited a significant fluctuating upward trend across the region, with an average growth rate of 0.025 per decade. Spatially, NDVI patterns were heterogeneous, and the extent of vegetation improvement substantially exceeded that of degradation. (2) NDVI variations showed the strongest causal relationships with temperature and precipitation. Specifically, temperature and precipitation exerted strong influences on NDVI, while NDVI had a notable feedback on precipitation. (3) Scenario-based projections to 2030 revealed that under the Natural Development Scenario and SSP2-4.5, vegetation improvement would be relatively pronounced, with combined areas of moderately high and high vegetation coverage expanding by 1.31 ×10⁴ km² and 1.29×10⁴ km² respectively, compared to that in 2020. In contrast, under the Economic Development Scenario and SSP5-8.5, vegetation improvement would be relatively small, with an expansion of only 0.94×10⁴ km² for both scenarios. The most significant vegetation improvement was observed under the Ecological Protection Scenario, where the corresponding area increased by 2.0×10⁴ km². These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration strategies in the Yellow River water conservation area. Region-specific management measures are proposed accordingly.

Key words: NDVI, geographic convergent cross mapping model, GeoSOS-FLUS model, multi-scenario prediction, Yellow River water source conservation area

李榕, 朱睿, 方春爽, 杨华庆, 温欣竹, 尹振良. 黄河水源涵养区NDVI变化驱动因素及多情景预测[J]. 生态学杂志, 2026, 45(2): 372-382.

LI Rong, ZHU Rui, FANG Chunshuang, YANG Huaqing, WEN Xinzhu, YIN Zhenliang. Driving factors and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI change in the Yellow River water conservation area.[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2026, 45(2): 372-382.

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黄河水源涵养区NDVI变化驱动因素及多情景预测

Driving factors and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI change in the Yellow River water conservation area.

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