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生态学杂志 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 481-492.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202302.022

• 技术与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于时空地理加权模型的中国沿海地区自然资本动态演变与生态补偿

张颖1,2,孟伟庆2*,王洪成1,徐文斌2,员浩帆2,黄执美2,鲁雅兰2,冯剑丰3


  

  1. 1天津大学建筑学院, 天津 300072; 2天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387; 3南开大学教育部环境污染过程与基准重点实验室, 天津市跨介质复合污染环境治理技术重点实验室, 天津 300071)

  • 出版日期:2023-02-10 发布日期:2023-07-10

The dynamic evolution of natural capital and ecological compensation in China’s coastal zone based on geographically and temporally weighted regression.

ZHANG Ying1,2, MENG Wei-qing2*, WANG Hong-cheng1, XU Wen-bin2, YUN Hao-fan2, HUANG Zhi-mei2, LU Ya-lan2, FENG Jian-feng3#br#

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  1. (1School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 2School of Geographic and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China; 3Key Laboratory of Pollution Processes and Environmental Criteria, Ministry of Education, and Tianjin Key Laboratory of Environmental Remediation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China).

  • Online:2023-02-10 Published:2023-07-10

摘要: 海陆交错地带是经济与生态矛盾最为突出的敏感性地带,明晰沿海地区自然资本动态演变,核算和评估其生态补偿金额对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。采用扩展的三维生态足迹模型,对2009—2019年中国沿海地区自然资本占用情况进行量化,并利用时空地理加权模型进行驱动力因素分析,同时计算各地区2017年生态补偿金额。结果表明:研究期间,中国沿海地区人均生态足迹先升后降,总体增幅为42.4%,人均生态承载力变幅较小,人均生态赤字增幅达51.5%,人类活动对生态环境的胁迫越来越强;足迹深度和足迹广度持续增加,需要近9个沿海地区的自然资本流量才能满足其发展,且需要消耗自然资本存量或引入区域外存量来填补不足;经济发展和产业结构对自然资本利用影响较大且存在时空异质性;生态补偿支付区占比较大且补偿金额差异显著。通过量化沿海地区自然资本利用格局与动态演变趋势,分析其影响因素并进行生态补偿测算,可以为区域生态文明建设和管理提供决策参考。


关键词: 自然资本, 沿海地区, 生态补偿, 生态足迹

Abstract: Coastal zone is a sensitive zone where economic and ecological contradictions are the most prominent. It is of great significance to clarify the dynamic evolution of natural capital and to evaluate the amount of ecological compensation for sustainable development of the coastal zone. We quantified the natural capital occupancy of China’s coastal zone from 2009 to 2019 using extended threedimensional ecological footprint model. The geographically and temporally weighted regression model was used to analyze the driving factors. The amount of ecological compensation in 2017 was calculated. The results showed that per capita ecological footprint of China’s coastal areas first increased and then declined, with an overall increase of 42.4% during 2009-2019. The per capita ecological carrying capacity changed slightly, whereas per capita ecological deficit increased by 51.5%. Human activities were the dominant environmental stress. As footprint depth and footprint size continued to increase, the natural capital flow of nearly 9 coastal areas was needed to satisfy their development, and the natural capital stock needed to be consumed or the external stock was introduced to fill the shortfall. Economic development and industrial structure had a great impact on natural capital, with temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The ecological compensation payment area accounted for a relatively large area and the compensation amount varied significantly. By quantifying the utilization pattern and dynamic evolution trend of natural capital in coastal areas, analyzing its influencing factors, and calculating ecological compensation, we can provide decision-making reference for the construction and management of regional ecological civilization.


Key words: natural capital, coastal zone, ecological compensation, ecological footprint.