关键词: 蒙古栎, 年轮, 气候变化, 径向生长, 气候响应

Abstract: Based on the natural disasters system risk theory and the disaster risk index method, and combining with tropical cyclone data and agricultural economic data,this paper analyzed the dangers of disaster-causing factors of tropical cyclone to agricultural production,the exposure of hazard-formative environments, the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, and the capacity of disasters prevention and mitigation in Zhejiang Province. The comprehensive risk indices of different grids were obtained by using the weighting comprehensive evaluation method. Based on GIS technology, the risk of tropical cyclone affecting the agricultural production in Zhejiang Province was spatially divided. The maximum risk of disaster-causing factors was distributed in the southeast coast of Zhejiang, the maximum exposure of hazard-formative environments and the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies occurred in the mountainous areas of Lishui City,and in Hangzhou, Lanxi, and Shaoxing and its surrounding areas,and the maximum disaster prevention and mitigation capacity mainly distributed in Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Wenzhou urban area and its surrounding areas. Considering the integrated risk level of all factors, the risk of tropical cyclone affecting the agricultural production in Zhejiang Province was divided into 5 levels, i.e., high risk, sub-high risk, medium risk, sub-low risk, and low risk. This study could provide a scientific basis for the agricultural structure adjustment and the disasters prevention and mitigation in Zhejiang Province.

Key words: Mongolian oak, tree ring, climate change, radial growth, climate response.