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生态学杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 343-350.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202201.023

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

岱海流域土地利用动态模拟及生态系统服务价值测算

李金雷,刘欢,哈斯娜,陆学岩,刘旭隆,王立新,温璐*   

  1. (内蒙古大学生态与环境学院, 草原生态安全省部共建协同创新中心, 内蒙古草地生态学重点实验室, 内蒙古自治区河流与湖泊重点实验室, 呼和浩特 010031)
  • 出版日期:2022-02-10 发布日期:2022-08-10

Simulation of land use and evaluation of ecosystem service value in Daihai Basin.

LI Jin-lei, LIU Huan, HA Si-na, LU Xue-yan, LIU Xu-long, WANG Li-xin, WEN Lu*   

  1. (College of Ecology and Environment, Inner Mongolia University, Collaborative Innovation Center for Grassland Ecological Security Jointly Built by Provinces and Ministries, Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecology, Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of River and Lake Ecology, Hohhot 010031, China).
  • Online:2022-02-10 Published:2022-08-10

摘要: 北方内陆湖泊面积萎缩严重,岱海作为典型的内陆湖之一,其面积变化尤为显著。为研究岱海湖面积变化及岱海流域生态系统服务价值(ESV)的动态趋势,本研究运用CA-Markov模型,基于1989—2018年6期的土地利用数据,预测2026年的土地利用状况,并采用当量因子法,对岱海流域ESV进行评估。结果表明:岱海湖若不进行生态补水,湖泊面积将由2018年的53 km2缩减至2026年的39.81 km2;随岱海湖湖面萎缩,岱海流域生态系统服务总价值不断下降,由1989年的32.25亿元下降为2018年的24.07亿元;在空间上,岱海流域ESV呈现中间高、四周低的空间分异特征,在时间上,高值区面积逐期减小,低值区面积增加;岱海流域若不进行生态补水,到2026年ESV降为23.99亿元,但“引黄济岱”工程的实施会使岱海湖水量和湖面面积增加,到2026年使岱海流域ESV增长至25.14亿元。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 岱海流域, 土地利用, CA-Markov模型

Abstract: Daihai is one of the typical inland lakes in North China, the area of which has shrunk seriously. The objective of this study is to assess and predict changes of ecosystem service values (ESV) of Daihai based on land use change. We used 1989, 1995, 2005, 2009, 2014, 2018 images to study land use change over these periods. CAMarkov model was used to predict land use status in 2026 based on the land use data of the six periods. The equivalent factor method was used to evaluate the ESV of Daihai Basin. The results showed that under natural change scenario, lake area would reduce from 53 km2 in 2018 to 39.81 km2 in 2026. With the shrinking of Daihai Lake, the ESV of Daihai Basin decreased from 3.225 billion yuan in 1989 to 2.407 billion yuan in 2018. Spatially, the ESV of middle area of Daihai Basin was higher than that of surrounding areas. Temporally, the area of high-ESV land decreased over time, while the area of low-ESV land increased. The ESV of study area would drop to 2.399 billion yuan by 2026 under natural change scenario, but increase to 2.514 billion yuan under water replenishing scenario.

Key words: ecosystem service value, Daihai Basin, land use, CA-Markov model.