关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 岱海流域, 土地利用, CA-Markov模型

Abstract: Daihai is one of the typical inland lakes in North China, the area of which has shrunk seriously. The objective of this study is to assess and predict changes of ecosystem service values (ESV) of Daihai based on land use change. We used 1989, 1995, 2005, 2009, 2014, 2018 images to study land use change over these periods. CAMarkov model was used to predict land use status in 2026 based on the land use data of the six periods. The equivalent factor method was used to evaluate the ESV of Daihai Basin. The results showed that under natural change scenario, lake area would reduce from 53 km² in 2018 to 39.81 km² in 2026. With the shrinking of Daihai Lake, the ESV of Daihai Basin decreased from 3.225 billion yuan in 1989 to 2.407 billion yuan in 2018. Spatially, the ESV of middle area of Daihai Basin was higher than that of surrounding areas. Temporally, the area of high-ESV land decreased over time, while the area of low-ESV land increased. The ESV of study area would drop to 2.399 billion yuan by 2026 under natural change scenario, but increase to 2.514 billion yuan under water replenishing scenario.

Key words: ecosystem service value, Daihai Basin, land use, CA-Markov model.