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茶叶霜冻害精细化预警——以浙江省松阳县为例

李时睿1,2,王治海1,金志凤1*,邱新法2,孙睿3#br#   

  1. (1浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017; 2南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 南京 210044; 3北京师范大学地理科学学部遥感科学与工程研究院, 北京 100875)
  • 出版日期:2017-10-10 发布日期:2017-10-10

Refined early-warning of tea frost disaster: A case study in Songyang county of Zhejiang.

LI Shi-rui1,2, WANG Zhi-hai1, JIN Zhi-feng1*, QIU Xin-fa2, SUN Rui3#br#   

  1. (1 Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China; 2College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China).
     
  • Online:2017-10-10 Published:2017-10-10

摘要: 霜冻是茶叶生产最主要的气象灾害,严重危害茶产业的可持续发展。本文根据浙江省70个基本气象站、松阳县25个区域自动气象站的观测数据,以及最优化集成释用(OCF)精细化数值预报产品、30 m分辨率DEM数据,通过GIS技术、混合插值法,建立了基于地理信息的日最低气温空间推算模型,并采用日最低气温作为茶叶霜冻害预警指标,结合ZY3卫星遥感数据提取的茶树种植区分布图,开展了浙江省松阳县茶叶霜冻害精细化预警。结果表明:细网格日最低气温空间推算模型的绝对误差平均0.35 ℃,相对误差平均2.83%,推算精度高;茶叶霜冻害精细化预警时效8 d,空间分辨率30 m×30 m;2017年3月15日的茶树霜冻害预警效果良好,预估茶园受灾面积2340.0 hm2,占全县茶园面积的30.6%;其中,轻度霜冻害面积1939.4 hm2,中度霜冻害面积367.2 hm2,重度霜冻害面积34.9 hm2,分别占全县茶园面积的25.35%、4.80%和0.46%;实地调查结果与预估结果基本一致。

关键词: 带长, 籽粒产量, 小麦, 土壤水分分布, 微喷带灌溉, 干物质积累

Abstract: Frost is one of the major climate disasters in tea production, affecting sustainable development of tea production. Based on the meteorological data of 70 basic weather stations in Zhejiang Province and 25 regional automatic stations in Songyang County, as well as Optimized Consensus Forecast  fine grid numerical prediction products and 30m resolution DEM data, a minimum air temperature model was established by GIS and mixed interpolation method. Taking daily minimum air temperature as tea frost damage warning index, combined with the map of tea plantation extracted from fineresolution ZY-3 satellite remote sensing data, a refined earlywarning method of tea frost disaster was studied. Results showed that the daily minimum air temperature model was of high accuracy with an absolute error of 0.35 ℃ and a relative error of 2.83%. The frost damage warning effectiveness was 8 days in advance and the spatial resolution was 30 m×30 m. Taking the tea frost disaster warning on March 15, 2017 as an example, the preestimated area of affected tea plantation was 2340.0 ha, accounting for 30.6% of the total tea area in the county. The mildly, moderately and severely affected areas were 1939.4, 367.2 and 34.9 hm2, which accounted for 25.35%, 4.08% and 0.46% of the county’s total tea area, respectively. The estimation was consistent with the field investigation.

Key words: micro-sprinkling hose irrigation, soil water distribution, hose length, grain yield, dry matter accumulation, wheat