Abstract: We developed a MaxEnt model for predicting potentially suitable geographic areas for Corymbia citriodora with climate, soil and topographic data from the landscapes and data from successful plantation locations in China. The model had high precision (AUC value >0.91). The majority of the highly suitable areas (existence probability >0.66) identified for C. citriodora are concentrated in coastal regions of southeastern China. According to the results of the jackknife test, the dominant ecological factors affecting the potential distribution of C. citriodora were the mean temperature of the wettest quarter, altitude, seasonal temperature variance, mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the driest quarter, annual temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. These factors together accounted for 86.9% of variation in suitable areas. The mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the driest quarter and the annual temperature range for areas identified as being highly suited to C. citriodora in China, were similar to the values of the corresponding factors in its natural distribution in Australia. Compared with the species’ natural distribution, suitable areas in China were characterized by lower altitudes and higher precipitations in the warmest quarter, which are favorable to rapid growth of C. citriodora. Our results provide a reference for sustainable development of C. citriodora plantations in China.

Key words: Spring maize, Plastic-film mulching, Nitrogen fertilizer, WUE, Fate of nitrogen, Dryland