Abstract: As the main body of the terrestrial ecosystem, vegetation cover can effectively reflect the ecological and environmental change at global or regional scale. It is of great significance to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of vegetation cover for regional ecosystem sustainable development. We used the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) to explore the temporal and spatial variations of vegetation in Henan Province from 2000 to 2019. The spatial differentiation characteristics and driving force of vegetation in Henan Province were analyzed by Geodetector model, and the future trend of vegetation was explained by Hurst index. The overall vegetation index in Henan Province showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2019, with a growth rate of 0.016  10 a-1. The growth rate during 2009-2019 showed a decreasing trend. Soil type, land use type, GDP and population density greatly affected the spatial distribution of NDVI. The interaction of any two factors exceeded the influence of a single factor, and the interaction of natural and human factors had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of NDVI. Based on the analysis of Hurst index, we found that the future NDVI changes in Henan Province showed anti sustainability characteristics, the area with Hurst index <0.5 accounted for 58.3% of the vegetation coverage in the whole study area, and the whole study area mainly would show a decreasing trend in the future.

Key words: NDVI, driving force, Geodetector, Hurst index, Henan