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Chinese Journal of Ecology ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 1006-1015.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202603.003

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Spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of NDVI in the Three-North Shelterbelt Project Region from 2001 to 2023.

YANG Jiaming1,2, CAO Yanping2*, LI Jialin1,3,4   

  1. (1School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China; 2College of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China; 3Zhejiang Collaborative Innovation Centre for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China; 4Ningbo University Donghai Academy, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China).

  • Online:2026-03-10 Published:2026-09-01

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Abstract: The Three-North Shelterbelt Project Region is one of the most severely desertified areas in China and a key focus of national ecological restoration initiatives. Understanding vegetation dynamics in this region is of great significance for evaluating the restoration effectiveness and guiding ecological management. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variations from 2001 to 2023 and future trajectory of vegetation NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) across the Three-North Region using univariate linear regression and the Hurst index. In addition, the Optimal Geographic Detector (OPGD) was employed to assess the influence of climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors on NDVI changes. The results showed that: (1) NDVI in this region increased significantly from 2001 to 2023, with an average rate of 0.0016 a-1 (P<0.05). Spatially, NDVI exhibited a clear northwest-to-southeast gradient, transitioning from low to medium to high values, reflecting pronounced regional variations. (2) Approximately 59.62% of the study area experienced a significant greening trend. The Helan Mountains roughly marked a boundary, with weaker NDVI increases in the west and more pronounced trends in the east. The fastest NDVI increases were observed in the eastern regions, particularly around the Daxing’anling-Yanshan Mountains and the Loess Plateau. (3) Climatic factors, especially moisture-related variables such as precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, had the strongest explanatory power for NDVI variations. Human activities ranked the second but exhibited a growing synergistic effect when interacting with moisture conditions. (4) The relative importance of driving factors varied across subregions. From northwest to southeast, dominant drivers shifted from human activity in arid zones, to moisture conditions in transitional areas, and to combined effects of moisture and topography in the more humid southeastern regions.


Key words: Three-North Shelterbelt Project Region, NDVI, spatiotemporal evolution, driving factor, Geodetector