Abstract: The range boundaries of tree species will continually shift in the future for adapting to the changing climate. We developed a model coupling framework which integrates a forest ecosystem model LINKAGES and a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the migration process of main tree species in the Changbai Mountains. We calculated the migration velocity of those species in the next 100 years. To explore the migration lag of tree species in response to climate change, we calculated the latitudinal velocity of temperature and precipitation changes across Changbai Mountains in the next 100 years. We then compared the velocity of the shifts in tree species’ ranges with that of climate change to quantify the tree species migration lag. The results showed that the geometric mean velocity of annual mean temperature in latitude was 0.57 km·a^-1 across all of the Changbai Mountains, and that the geometric mean velocity of total annual precipitation in latitude was 1.17 km·a^-1. The northern boundary of Abies nephrolepis, Acer mono, Betula costata, Juglans mandshurica, Larix olgensis, Phellodendron amurense, and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica would migrate northward at a rate of 1.17-9.05 m·a^-1 in the next 100 years. The southern boundary of Betula costata, Betula dahurica, Picea jezoensis var. komarovii, Pinus koraiensis, Tilia amurensis, and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica would migrate southward by 0.97-10.03 m·a^-1. These results suggest that the migration of the examined tree species may lag behind climate change in Changbai Mountains.

Key words: forest landscape model, ecosystem process model, climate change, tree species migration lag.