关键词: 枸杞, 负泥虫, MaxEnt模型, 适生区, 预测

Abstract: Lema decempunctata Gebler is a catastrophic leaf-feeding pest of organic production of goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. Identifying its distribution under climate warming is of significance for the pest monitoring, forecasting, as well as scientific prevention and control. We used the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution based on the distribution information of L. decempunctata and environmental factors (climate and soil). The impact of climate change on the distribution of its suitable areas was examined. The results showed that: (1) The average temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) was the dominant environmental factor affecting the distribution of L. decempunctata, and the suitable distribution range was from -15.49 ℃ to 10.60 ℃. (2) Under the current and future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats of the pest were concentrated in East Asian countries, except Mongolia. The suitable area in China was the largest, accounting for more than 70% of global suitable area, followed by Japan, South Korea, and North Korea. In China, the suitable habitats were distributed in almost all provinces, with the moderately and highly suitable areas being concentrated in the north of the Yangtze River. In the 2050s and 2070s, the global total suitable area reached the maximum under RCP 2.6 and 6.0, respectively, and increased by 1.94% and 10.55% compared with the current ones. (3) In the 2050s, 81.92% of the suitable habitats remained unchanged compared with the current condition. In the 2070s, 92.34% of the suitable habitats remained unchanged compared with the 2050s. The expansion and contraction area in the 2050s was higher than that in the 2070s.

Key words: goji berry, Lema decempunctata, MaxEnt model, suitable habitat, prediction