关键词: 气候变化, LANDIS-Ⅱ, 净初级生产力, 森林碳库

Abstract: Climate change will affect the structure and function of forest ecosystems, bringing uncertainty in the estimation of forest carbon sequestration potential. To clarify the dynamics of forest carbon pools in the Changbai Mountain under climate warming, we utilized the spatially explicit landscape model LANDIS-Ⅱ to simulate the changes in forest carbon sequestration potential and carbon stock in the Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve from 2000 to 2100 under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and the current climate scenario (SSP0-1.0). The results showed that: (1) Net primary productivity (NPP) of forests would continue to increase in the future. By 2100, NPP under the three future climate scenarios is higher than that under the SSP0-1.0 scenario (NPP of 1010 g C·m^-2·a^-1). However, there are no significant spatial-temporal variations in NPP among the different climate scenarios. (2) The total carbon stock in forests shows an increasing trend under all climate scenarios. Compared to the SSP0-1.0 scenario, the SSP1-2.6 scenario leads to an increase in plant carbon pools but a decrease in soil carbon pools and detritus carbon pools, resulting in a 2.1% decrease in total carbon stock. Under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, all carbon pools (plant, detritus, and soil) decrease, leading to reductions of 3.4% and 4.2% in total carbon stock, respectively. (3) The carbon pools of high-elevation forests are more sensitive to future climate warming than low-elevation and middle-elevation forests. The response of plant carbon pools to climate change shows an altitudinal gradient effect. Plant carbon pools significantly decrease at low-altitude regions and are promoted at high-altitude regions under all three future climate scenarios. This study could provide a reference for long-term forest management and the enhancement of forest carbon sequestration potential in the Changbai Mountain.

Key words: climate change, LANDIS-Ⅱ, net primary productivity, forest carbon pool