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生态学杂志 ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9): 2684-2693.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202409.001

• 森林与林业生态 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同情景下松花江上游碳储量动态变化及碳汇潜力

张锦1,2,张新艳2,张文广1*,黄义强1,李育虹3,冯明铭1,孙泽宇1,2,李蕊1,邹元春1,姜明1   

  1. 1中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所湿地生态与环境重点实验室, 长白山湿地与生态吉林省联合重点实验室, 长春 130102; 2长春理工大学化学与环境工程学院, 长春 130022; 3长春师范大学地理科学学院, 长春 130032)

  • 出版日期:2024-09-10 发布日期:2024-09-11

Carbon stock dynamics and carbon sink potential in the upper reaches of Songhua River under different scenarios.

ZHANG Jin1,2, ZHANG Xinyan2, ZHANG Wenguang1*, HUANG Yiqiang1, LI Yuhong3, FENG Mingming1, SUN Zeyu1,2, LI Rui1, ZOU Yuanchun1, JIANG Ming1   

  1. (1Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Joint Key Laboratory of Changbaishan Wetlands and Ecology in Jilin Province, Changchun 130102, China; 2College of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China; 3College of Geographical Sciences, Changchun Normal University, Changchun 130032, China).

  • Online:2024-09-10 Published:2024-09-11

摘要: 陆地生态系统碳储量变化与区域土地利用变化密切相关,预测未来不同情景下区域碳源/汇变化对土地利用管理决策及发掘碳汇潜力具有重要意义。本研究基于松花江流域上游2000—2020年土地利用数据,采用CA-Markov模型预测了现状发展情景、经济发展情景和生态保护情景下土地利用空间格局;采用修正后的碳密度数据,运用InVEST模型Carbon模块评估松花江上游流域2000—2050年5期碳储量及碳源、碳汇变化。结果表明:2000—2020年松花江上游流域碳储量整体呈下降趋势,共减少168.4×108 kg;2000—2020年,松花江上游流域林地面积减少以及建设用地和耕地扩张是促使碳储量减少的主要原因;2030年和2050年在现状发展情景和经济发展情景模式下,碳储量减幅较大;生态保护情景下碳储量明显增加,较2020年分别增加441.5×108和658.1×108 kg,说明该情景下土地利用格局固碳能力较强。该研究结果可为松花江上游流域土地利用格局优化以及碳储生态服务功能可持续发展提供科学依据。


关键词: 碳储量, 土地利用变化, CA-Markov模型, InVEST模型, 碳汇潜力, 松花江上游

Abstract: Carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems are closely related to regional land use changes. It is important to predict carbon sources/sinks under different scenarios for land use management decisions and exploring carbon sink potential. Based on land use data in the upper reaches of Songhua River during 2000-2020, we used the CA-Markov model to predict the spatial pattern of land use under the status quo development scenario, economic development scenario, and ecological protection scenario, respectively. With modified carbon density data, we used the Carbon module of the InVEST model to assess carbon stock and changes in carbon sources and sinks in the upper reaches of the Songhua River for five periods during 2000 to 2050. The overall trend of carbon storage in the upper reaches of Songhua River from 2000 to 2020 was decreasing, with a total decrease of 168.4×108 kg. During the 20year period, the decrease of forest area and the expansion of construction land and arable land were the main reasons for the decrease of carbon stocks. Under the status quo development scenario and the economic development scenario, carbon stocks will decrease greatly in 2030 and 2050. Under the ecological conservation scenario, carbon stocks will increase by 441.5×108 and 658.1×108 kg respectively compared to that in 2020, indicating that the land use pattern under this scenario has a strong carbon sequestration capacity. Our results provide a scientific basis for optimizing land use pattern and the sustainable development of the ecological services of carbon stocks in the upper reaches of Songhua River.


Key words: carbon stock, land use/cover change, CA-Markov model, InVEST model, carbon sink potential, the upper reaches of Songhua River