基于MaxEnt模型的中国特有灌木物种白刺花的潜在适生区预测

doi:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202110.024

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 白刺花是我国特有的豆科灌木植物，耐旱性极强，对干旱地区水土保持具有重要意义。为了解气候变化情景下白刺花在中国的潜在分布区变化，本文收集211个白刺花的地理分布数据与9个气候因子，采用物种分布模拟最大熵模型进行建模，预测了白刺花在末次间冰期、末次冰盛期（MIROC、CCSM）、当代及其未来（2050s、2080s）5个时期气候条件下的潜在分布区。采用受试者工作特征曲线、刀切法、环境贡献率与置换重要性评估模型的可信度，分析影响白刺花的主导环境变量阈值与适生区变化。结果表明：5个时期的受试者工作特征曲线（AUC）的值都大于0.95，表明模型结果较好。物种分布模拟表明，白刺花最适宜的当代分布区主要集中在西南、西北、华北和中南地区，末次间冰期西南地区最适分布区减少，向河北、山东一带移动；末次冰盛期西北地区最适分布区减少，向西南方向移动；2050年最适分布区由云南向四川偏移，2080年云南一带最适分布区减少。影响白刺花分布的主要环境因子有温度和降水。在气候变化下，白刺花在当代的适生区面积占17.78%；与末次冰盛期相比，当代的适生区面积有所减少；与末次间冰期相比，当代的适生区面积略微增加；与当代相比，未来气候条件下，2050年适生区面积增加12.07%，2080年适生区面积增加1.67%。

关键词: 白刺花, 最大熵模型, ArcGIS, 潜在分布区, 环境变量

Abstract: Sophora davidii is a unique legume shrub species in China, which is of great significance for water and soil conservation in drylands due to its strong drought tolerance. In order to understand the change of potential distribution area of S. davidii in China under climate change scenarios, 211 geographic distribution data of S. davidii and nine climate factors were collected. The maximum entropy model was used to simulate S. davidii distribution in the last interglacial period, the last glacial maximum (MIROC, CCSM), current, and future (2050s, 2080s). The reliability of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, jackknife method, environmental contribution rate, and permutation importance. The changes of the threshold of main environmental variables and the range of suitable distribution area of S. davidii were analyzed. The results showed that the AUC values of the five periods were greater than 0.95, indicating well performance of this model. The most suitable distribution areas of S. davidii were mainly concentrated in Southwest, Northwest, North China, and Central South China. The most suitable distribution areas of S. davidii decreased in Southwest during the last interglacial period and moved to Hebei and Shandong provinces. During the last glacial maximum, the most suitable distribution areas in Northwest China decreased and moved to the southwest. In 2050, the most suitable distribution areas shifted from Yunnan Province to Sichuan Province. In 2080, the most suitable distribution areas in Yunnan Province decreased. Temperature and precipitation were the main environmental factors affecting S. davidii distribution. Under the scenario of climate change, the suitable area of S. davidii decreased to 17.78% of present area. Compared with the last glacial maximum, the suitable area of S. davidii was reduced. Compared with the last interglacial period, current suitable areas slightly increased. Compared with current climate, the suitable areas will increase by 12.07% in 2050 and 1.67% in 2080.

Key words: Sophora davidii, maximum entropy model, ArcGIS, potential distribution area, environmental variable.

王露露, 伊力哈木·亚尔买买提. 基于MaxEnt模型的中国特有灌木物种白刺花的潜在适生区预测[J]. 生态学杂志, 2021, 40(10): 3114-3124.

WANG Lu-lu, Yilihamu Yaermaimaiti. Prediction of potential suitable areas for a Chinese endemic shrub Sophora davidii using the MaxEnt Model.[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2021, 40(10): 3114-3124.

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基于MaxEnt模型的中国特有灌木物种白刺花的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of potential suitable areas for a Chinese endemic shrub Sophora davidii using the MaxEnt Model.

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