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基于SPEI指数的近52年青海省农(牧)作物生长季干旱动态格局分析

张调风1,2**,李林1,刘宝康3,4,李万志1,王东2,任培贵2   

  1. (1青海省气候中心, 西宁 810001; 2西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070; 3中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 兰州 730071; 4青海省气象科学研究所, 西宁 810001)
  • 出版日期:2014-08-10 发布日期:2014-08-10

Dynamic pattern of drought in crop (grass) growth season over Qinghai Province during last 52 years, based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.

ZHANG Tiao-feng1,2**, LI Lin1, LIU Bao-kang3,4, LI Wan-zhi1, WANG Dong2, REN Pei-gui2   

  1. (1Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, China; 2School of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China; 3Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730071, China; 4Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science, Xining 810001, China)
  • Online:2014-08-10 Published:2014-08-10

摘要: 标准化降水蒸散指数(the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,SPEI)是国际上最新发展的适用于气候变暖背景下多时间尺度干旱监测与评估的理想指标。本文利用1961—2012年青海省47个气象站点逐月的平均气温和降水数据,基于SPEI分析了近52年气候变化背景下青海省农作物生长季多时间尺度干旱风险的时空变化特征。结果表明:生长季干旱风险突出,时空差异显著;在气候变化背景下,生长季生育前期干旱化趋势小于需水关键期和全生育期趋势,生长季内干旱有以生育前期干旱为主向需水关键期干旱为主转变的特点。与此同时,干旱发生范围也有明显扩大趋势;在区域平均增暖1.36 ℃情况下,青海省农作物生长季中度以上干旱风险平均增加了2倍;进一步印证了气候变暖在带来可能收益的同时由于气候变率的增大及水热匹配的不均匀而增加农牧业生产的不稳定性。

关键词: 实际净初级生产力, 净初级生产力损失, 人类活动, 定量评价, 相对影响指数

Abstract: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is a new climate drought index, which has been proved to be suited to drought monitoring and assessment at different time scales under global warming. This paper, based on SPEI, used the mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation data from 47 weather stations in Qinghai from 1961-2012, to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of multiscalar drought risks in the growth season of crop and pasture in Qinghai in the past 52 years. The results showed there was a drying trend during the growth season, and the spatiotemporal variations of drought risks were significant. Under the background of global warming, the drying trend for the early growth stage was slightly weaker than those of the critical water demand stage and the whole growth period. As a result, the key feature of droughts during the growth season was the switch of drought from occurring in the early growth stage to occurring in the critical water demand stage. In addition, drought area showed a significant trend of further expansion. Given an average warming of 1.36 ℃ over the past 52 years, the drought risk with moderate or higher severities had increased by two times, suggesting a close relationship between the drought and climate change. Thus, climate warming may bring benefits for agriculture, but also increase the instability of agricultural production.

Key words: loss of net primary productivity, quantitative assessment, act net primary productivity, human activity, relative contribution index