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生态学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 899-907.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202103.027

• 技术与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

陕西长武玉米降水指数保险设计

杨晓娟,刘布春*,刘园,白薇   

  1. (中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室, 农业部农业环境重点实验室, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2021-03-10 发布日期:2021-03-17

Designing of precipitation index insurance of maize in Changwu, Shaanxi Province.

YANG Xiao-juan, LIU Bu-chun*, LIU Yuan, BAI Wei   

  1. (Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/National Engineering Laboratory of Efficient Water Use, Disaster Resistant and Mitigation of Crops/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China).
  • Online:2021-03-10 Published:2021-03-17

摘要: 天气指数保险能有效规避传统农业保险的弊端。本研究基于陕西长武长序列产量数据和气象数据,采用统计分析的方法进行种植面积、产量、单产、趋势产量、相对气象产量以及玉米生育期需供水的分析;采用基于损失的风险评估方法评价种植风险;采用基于Logistic模型的费率厘定方法进行纯费率厘定;根据降水指数和减产率的相关性,设计降水指数;采用投影寻踪的方法设计降水指数赔付方案。结果表明:长武玉米种植面积、产量、单产、趋势产量以及相对气象产量都呈现出增加趋势;生育期平均需水650 mm,降水434 mm,亏缺216 mm;从4月下旬到8月下旬,玉米呈现出水分亏缺的状态,7月中旬抽雄期水分亏缺最多,为33.65 mm;9月出现微弱的水分盈余;1994、1995和1997年为减产年,减产率分别为14%、20%和44%,相应降水距平分别为-42.44%、-47.72%和-29.71%;玉米种植轻、中、重和巨灾的发生概率分别是7.49%、3.40%、1.43%和1%;玉米降水指数保险纯费率为2.92%;生育期内旬降水(阈值为40 mm)累积值指定为玉米降水指数,并以降水指数为变量进行分段赔付。本研究剖析了长武玉米种植状况和干旱灾害,并设计了玉米的降水指数保险产品,为长武玉米农业保险提供了新的选择,对解决农业保险目前的困境具有重要的意义。

 

关键词: 天气指数, 分布模型, 风险评估, 费率厘定, 赔付

Abstract: Weather index insurance can be used to avoid the disadvantages of traditional agricultural insurance. Based on the data of yield and planting area of maize and meteorological data of Changwu in Shaanxi Province from 1990 to 2018, we analyzed the planting area, total yield, yield per unit area, trend yield, relative meteorological yield, water demand, and supply during growth period of maize. The maize planting risk was evaluated using the method of agricultural production loss-risk assessment. The pure rate of maize was determined by the Logistic modeling. The maize precipitation index during the whole growth period was designed according to the relationship between precipitation index and yield. The compensation scheme of maize precipitation index insurance was designed by projection pursuit regression. The results showed that planting area, total yield, yield per unit area, trend yield, and relative meteorological yield all showed an increasing trend over the years. The average water demand, supply, and deficit of maize were 650, 434, and 216 mm in the whole growing season, respectively. From late April to late August, water deficit of maize occurred. The largest water deficit was 33.65 mm in tasseling period in midJuly, and a slight water surplus was shown in September. The maize production was reduced by 14%, 20%, and 44% in 1994, 1995, and 1997, respectively, with the corresponding precipitation anomalies of -42.44%, -47.72% and -29.71% respectively. The planting risk probability of light, medium, severe and excessive disaster was 7.49%, 3.40%, 1.43%, and 1%, respectively. The pure rate of maize agricultural insurance was 2.92%. The cumulative ten-day precipitation during the growing season was designated as maize precipitation index, with a threshold value of 40 mm. The precipitation index was used to make compensation in sections. Our results provide a new choice for agricultural insurance of maize in Changwu, which is of great significance for solving the current dilemma of agricultural insurance.

Key words: weather index, distribution model, risk assessment, premium rate, compensation.