基于GIS的四川盆区小麦条锈病风险评价与区划

生态学杂志

基于GIS的四川盆区小麦条锈病风险评价与区划

郭翔^1,2,马献菊³,王明田^4*,张国芝⁵,王茹琳⁶

(¹中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室，成都 610072；²四川省农业气象中心，成都 610072；³凉山州气象局，四川西昌 615000；⁴四川省气象台，成都 610071； ⁵四川省农业厅植物保护站，成都 610041； ⁶四川省农村经济综合信息中心，成都 610072)

出版日期:2019-06-10 发布日期:2019-06-10

Risk assessment and division of wheat stripe rust based on GIS in Sichuan Basin.

GUO Xiang^1,2, MA Xian-ju³, WANG Ming-tian^4*, ZHANG Guo-zhi⁵, WANG Ru-lin⁶

(¹Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Heavy Rain and DroughtFlood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China; ^2Sichuan Province Agro-meteorological Center, Chengdu 610072, China; ^3Liangshan Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Xichang 615000, Sichuan, China; ⁴Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610071, China; ⁵Sichuan Plant Protection Station, Chengdu 610041, China; ⁶Sichuan Province Rural Economic Information Centre, Chengdu 610072, China).

Online:2019-06-10 Published:2019-06-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用四川盆区1961—2017年气象数据、1999—2016年小麦条锈病监测资料以及农业生产、地理信息等数据，基于自然灾害风险评估原理和四川盆区小麦条锈病发生机理，运用集优法、加权综合评价法、层次分析法等，构建了四川盆区小麦条锈病发生风险评价指标体系和评价模型。在GIS技术支持下，对条锈病孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性、承载体易损性和防灾减灾能力4要素分别进行了评价，对四川盆区小麦条锈病发生风险进行了评估和分区。结果表明：四川盆区整体气象环境对小麦条锈病越冬和春季流行适宜；危险性指数较高的区域主要分布在盆地的西部地区；盆西平原、盆中浅丘的易损性指数较高；盆西、盆南和盆中与盆东北相交的浅丘地区防灾减灾能力较强。研究将条锈病发生风险划分为轻、低、中、高4个不同等级，高风险区分布在盆地西部；中、低风险区分布面积相当广，前者呈零散状分布，后者主要集中在盆地西部和中部；轻风险区分布面积最广。

关键词: 森林土壤, 全球变化, CH₄吸收, 响应机制

Abstract: With meteorological data from 1961 to 2017 in Sichuan Basin, monitoring data on wheat stripe rust from 1999 to 2016, and data on agricultural production and topography, we constructed risk assessment index system and evaluation model of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin using the methods of aggregation, weighted comprehensive evaluation, and analytic hierarchy process, based on the natural disaster risk theory and the occurrence mechanism of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin. We used GIS technology to evaluate the sensitivity of disaster environment, hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of disaster bodies, and capacity of drought disaster prevention and reduction. Finally, we assessed and partitioned the risk of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin. The results showed that the overall meteorological environment of Sichuan Basin is suitable for wheat stripe rust in winter and spring. The areas with higher hazard index are mainly distributed in the western part of the basin, while 1the areas with higher vulnerability index are located in western basin and central basin. There are stronger capacity of drought disaster prevention and reduction in western basin, southern basin and the junction of the middle and northeast parts of the basin. The risk of wheat stripe rust could be divided into four levels: light, low, medium, and high. Highrisk areas are mostly concentrated in the west part of the basin. Lightrisk areas are scattered in the eastern and southern parts of the basin. The distribution areas of middle and low risk areas are similar, with the former being scattered and the latter mainly concentrated in the west and middle of the basin. The area with light-risk is the largest.

Key words: forest soil, responding mechanism, global change, CH₄ uptake

郭翔,马献菊,王明田,张国芝,王茹琳. 基于GIS的四川盆区小麦条锈病风险评价与区划[J]. 生态学杂志.

GUO Xiang, MA Xian-ju, WANG Ming-tian, ZHANG Guo-zhi, WANG Ru-lin. Risk assessment and division of wheat stripe rust based on GIS in Sichuan Basin.[J]. cje.

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