关键词: 森林土壤, 全球变化, CH₄吸收, 响应机制

Abstract: With meteorological data from 1961 to 2017 in Sichuan Basin, monitoring data on wheat stripe rust from 1999 to 2016, and data on agricultural production and topography, we constructed risk assessment index system and evaluation model of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin using the methods of aggregation, weighted comprehensive evaluation, and analytic hierarchy process, based on the natural disaster risk theory and the occurrence mechanism of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin. We used GIS technology to evaluate the sensitivity of disaster environment, hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of disaster bodies, and capacity of drought disaster prevention and reduction. Finally, we assessed and partitioned the risk of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin. The results showed that the overall meteorological environment of Sichuan Basin is suitable for wheat stripe rust in winter and spring. The areas with higher hazard index are mainly distributed in the western part of the basin, while 1the areas with higher vulnerability index are located in western basin and central basin. There are stronger capacity of drought disaster prevention and reduction in western basin, southern basin and the junction of the middle and northeast parts of the basin. The risk of wheat stripe rust could be divided into four levels: light, low, medium, and high. Highrisk areas are mostly concentrated in the west part of the basin. Lightrisk areas are scattered in the eastern and southern parts of the basin. The distribution areas of middle and low risk areas are similar, with the former being scattered and the latter mainly concentrated in the west and middle of the basin. The area with light-risk is the largest.

Key words: forest soil, responding mechanism, global change, CH₄ uptake