关键词: 气候因子, 千金榆, 潜在分布区, 气候变化, MaxEnt

Abstract: As one of the core concepts in landscape ecology, the multiscale synthesis is an essential part in landscape ecological risk assessment. In this study, we analyzed the effects of landscape pattern at different spatial grains of 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 m in Gaoqu Town of Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province, with eight landscape pattern indices. We established a landscape ecological risk assessment model based on landscape pattern. Landscape ecological risk indices at quadrat scale, administrative scale and ecological scale were calculated and spatially interpolated. The most suitable scale was selected base on the overlay analysis of the landscape ecological risk distribution results. A typical village was used to verify the results. Our results showed that 120 m was the most suitable spatial grain. The accuracy of landscape ecological risk spatial distribution at quadrat scale decreased with the increases of spatial grain. The results of landscape ecological risk distribution varied greatly across different scales. The overlapping area between the quadrat scale and ecological scale was the largest, accounting for 32.14% of the total. Landscape ecological risk distribution at the ecological scale matched the actual situation of study area. Therefore, ecological scale would be the most suitable scale for analyzing the landscape ecological risk in this area.

Key words: climate change, climatic factor, MaxEnt, Carpinus cordata, potential distribution