关键词: Cytospora属, 远程传播, 病害风险预测, 轨迹模拟

Abstract: Cytospora canker has caused significant losses in forest and fruit industries in Xinjiang. To explore the patterns of long-distance spread of this disease with air currents, the spatiotemporal dynamics of risks, and the possibility of its prevalence in different regions in Xinjiang, we conducted a 48-hour forward spread simulation of canker disease spores from 22 inoculum sources during the period from March to October of 2013 to 2022. The simulation was based on the HYSPLIT model combined with NCEP global reanalysis meteorological field data and implemented using MeteoInfo software. Through trajectory frequency analysis, cluster analysis, and trend analysis of the generated trajectory data, we analyzed the dispersal range, primary transmission pathways, and risk evolution patterns of Cytospora canker in Xinjiang. Results showed that: (1) The dispersal of Cytospora canker demonstrated pronounced regional and seasonal variations. In northern Xinjiang, dispersal trajectories were predominantly influenced by the west and northwest winds, with faster transmission speeds and wider affected areas. Some dispersal trajectories crossed or circumvented the Tianshan Mountain to reach southern Xinjiang. (2) The dispersal trajectories in southern Xinjiang were influenced by east and northeast winds. The western regions of southern Xinjiang were affected by northwest winds, with smaller transmission ranges than infection sources in northern Xinjiang. (3) From 2013 to 2022, the areas with an upward trend in transmission risk were more extensive in northern Xinjiang, while there were more areas with a downward trend in transmission risk in southern Xinjiang. Some regions in the Ili River Valley and Akto County were high-risk areas.

Key words: Cytospora, long-distance dispersal, disease risk forecasting, trajectory simulation