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石羊河流域NPP对气候变化的响应

张雪蕾1,王义成1,肖伟华1*,杨瑞祥2,王燕1,朱丽姗1   

  1. 1中国水利水电科学研究院, 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038;2四川大学水利水电学院, 成都 610065)
  • 出版日期:2018-10-10 发布日期:2018-10-10

Responses of net primary productivity of natural vegetation to climate change in the Shiyang River basin.

ZHANG Xue-lei1, WANG Yi-cheng1, XIAO Wei-hua1*, YANG Rui-xiang2, WANG Yan1, ZHU Li-shan1   

  1. (1China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing 100038, China; 2College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China).
  • Online:2018-10-10 Published:2018-10-10

摘要: 以石羊河流域上游山区和中下游绿洲区为研究区,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型对研究区的NPP进行估算,通过Sen斜率的方法对NPP变化的时空特征进行分析,基于敏感性分析对NPP的主要气候影响因子对NPP的贡献程度进行了估算;通过设定不同的气候情景,分析各气候情景下NPP的响应特征,在此基础上对未来NPP的变化进行了预测。结果表明:1981—2015年,研究区气候趋向“暖湿化”,NPP在“暖湿化”的趋势下表现为增加;NPP自上游至下游呈增加趋势,增减趋势空间分异不显著,变化幅度空间异质性较强;NPP主要受降水、相对湿度及净辐射的影响;“暖湿型”气候条件对植被生长和干物质的积累最有利,“冷干型”气候最不利于植被干物质的积累,相对于气温而言,降水的影响程度更大,降水决定NPP的增减,气温影响NPP的变化幅度;石羊河流域NPP未来的变化以增加为主,到2050年NPP将增加5.71%~7.83%。

关键词: 千岛湖, 生态系统服务, 评估, 价值

Abstract: Net primary productivity (NPP) of the mountainous area in upper reaches and oasis areas in middle and lower reaches of Shiyang River basin was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model. The spatial and temporal dynamics of NPP were analyzed by Sen’s slope method. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the contributions of main climate factors to NPP were estimated. The response of NPP to climate change was analyzed by setting four different climate scenarios. Subsequently, the changes of NPP in future were predicted. The results showed that climate had a tendency to be warm and wet from 1981 to 2015, with increasing NPP in the study area. The spatial heterogeneity of change trend of NPP was not significant, but the spatial heterogeneity of change magnitude was strong, with NPP increasing from the upper reaches to the lower reaches. NPP was mainly affected by precipitation, relative humidity, and net radiation. The “warm and wet” climate was beneficial to the vegetation growth, while the “cold and dry” climate was unfavorable to the vegetation growth. The changes in NPP depend on precipitation, with temperature affecting the amplitude of such changes. The NPP in Shiyang River basin is predicted to increase by 5.71%-7.83% in 2050.

Key words: Thousand-Island Lake, ecosystem services, valuation, economic evaluation