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基于大尺度因子的小麦白粉病长期预测模型

于彩霞1,霍治国1,2**,黄大鹏3,姜燕4,吴立1   

  1. 1中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081; 2 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,  南京 210044;  3国家气候中心, 北京 100081; 4中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2015-03-10 发布日期:2015-03-10

Long-term prediction models for China national wheat powdery mildew based on large scale factors.

YU Cai-xia1, HUO Zhi-guo1,2**, HUANG Da-peng3, JIANG Yan4, WU Li1   

  1. (1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecast, EarlyWarning and Assessment, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China; 4 Department of Emergency Response, Disaster Mitigation and Public Services, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
  • Online:2015-03-10 Published:2015-03-10

摘要:

根据1971—2008年全国小麦白粉病发生面积资料、1970—2008年大气环流特征量逐月资料及1970—2008年太平洋海温逐月资料,通过因子膨化、空间拓扑分析组合大气环流、海温因子,采用最优化处理、相关分析、相关稳定性检验、因子独立性检验等方法,筛选对小麦白粉病影响稳定、显著、独立的大气、海温因子,分别构建基于大气环流及太平洋海温的全国小麦白粉病发生面积率预报预测模型。利用2009—2010年资料对模型进行预测检验,经回代及预测检验,大气环流模型回代检验等级正确率为81.6%,2009、2010年等级预测正确率为100%,模型总体评价正确率为82.5%。太平洋海温模型回代检验等级正确率为78.95%,2009、2010年预测检验正确率为100%,模型总体评价正确率为80%。大气环流模型较太平洋海温模型总体评价准确率略高。
 

关键词: 气候学足迹, 农田, 水热通量, 大孔径闪烁仪

Abstract: Based on China national wheat powdery mildew occurrence area data from 1971 to 2008, the monthly data of atmospheric circulation characteristics from 1970 to 2008 and the north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) monthly data from 1970 to 2008, using the method of factor puffing and spatial topological analysis, in combination with atmospheric circulation factors and SST factors, the factors that have stable and significant effects on wheat powdery mildew were selected by means of optimization process, correlation analysis, stability test, and factor independence test, the atmospheric circulation and the north Pacific SST regression forecasting models of the wheat powdery mildew occurrence area rate were constructed, respectively. With data from 2009 to 2010, the models were verified. The accuracy rate of forecast about the atmospheric circulation model with the  historical data reached 81.6% with the predicting accuracy of 100%, and its accuracy rate of prediction was 82.5% as a whole. The accuracy rate of forecast about the north Pacific SST model with the  historical data reached 78.95% with the prediction accuracy of 100%, and its accuracy rate of predicting was 80% as a whole. The evaluation precision of the atmospheric circulation model is slightly higher than that of the north Pacific SST model.

Key words: large aperture scintillometer, water and heat fluxes, farmland, footprint climatology