关键词: 紫茉莉, MaxEnt模型, 适生区, 分布格局, 气候变化

Abstract: It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the distribution patterns of invasive plants under global climate change for the control and prevention of invasive plants. Based on 228 distribution points nationwide and 13 major environmental and climatic factors (from 19 environmental and climatic data of WorldClim), we simulated and analyzed the major environmental factors affecting the distribution of invasive species Mirabilis japala using MaxEnt model. Combined with ArcMap software, we analyzed the distribution pattern and change pattern of the suitable area of M. japala under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) in the current and future (2050s and 2070s). The results showed that the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, with the AUC value of training data and test data being 0.983 and 0.980, respectively. Precipitation of the warmest quarter was the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of M. japala. In current climate condition, the total suitable area was 429.06×10⁴ km², accounting for 44.52% of the total land area, located in all provinces except Xinjiang in China. Under the three climate scenarios in the future, the potential distribution area of M. japala will be shrinking in the south, expanding in the north, and the total area of suitable area will increase. The southern part of Jilin, the southern part of Heilongjiang and the southeastern part of Inner Mongolia are the main expansion areas, and the center of mass migrates to the high latitude areas in the northeast direction. In conclusion, under the scenario of global climate change, the suitable area of M. japala in China will increase and expand  northward. Some regions in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, southern Jilin, southern Tibet, northern Sichuan and southern Gansu should take precautions to prevent the expansion of M. japala.

Key words: Mirabilis japala, MaxEnt model, suitable area, distribution pattern, climate change