Land-use model plays an important role in land-use change analysis, simulation and prediction. Land-use maps in 1986, 1996 and 2006 in Kunming were interpreted based on remote sensing images. The suitability of the CLUES model was estimated in Kunming with complex topography. Three scenarios were designed considering different polices and development trends for land use from 2007 to 2020. In the “historic development trend scenario”, forestland area (matrix of the landscape) would decrease constantly, while build-up land and grassland area would increase. The landscape pattern would be more fragmental. In the “planning scenario”, buildup land would increase rapidly, while farmland and forest land would decrease. The trend of landscape fragment would be less severe than that in the “historical development trend scenario”. In the “ecologypriority scenario”, forestland would increase, while farmland and grassland would decrease, and the trajectory of landscape fragment and the landscape pattern would be more optimized. The simulated results of CLUE-S model provide a scientific support for land-use planning and policymaking in Kunming.