Abstract: In order to investigate the influence induced by climate change on the forest vegetation in the subtropical area and the response of the forest vegetation to climate change, the genetic diversities of Mytilaria laosensis population in provenance and cultivation areas were studied by ISSR molecular marker technique. The meteorological factors in the cultivation areas were associatively analyzed. The results analyzed by PopGen32 software package showed that the genetic diversities of the cultivation populations (Xinning population and Zhuzhou population, Hunan) and provenance population (Pingxiang population, Guangxi) of M. laosensis are basically consistent due to the time for M. laosensis population introduction in Zhuzhou, Hunan during the warming period when various climate factors were no longer limiting factors to affect the growth of M. laosensis population. The climate in 2042 was simulated by the RegCM3 climate model. Compared to the climate in 2010, annual average temperature would increase by 1 ℃, average temperature in January would obviously rise, while average temperature in July would have little change in the south of the Nanling Mountain but obviously increase in the north, and annual precipitation would have no obvious variation. It is expected that the natural population of M. laosensis may distribute to approximately 25°N in 2042, and distribute sporadically in the north of 25°N, while in coastal areas, the distribution would further northerly extend up to about 26°N.

Key words: reduced nitrogen application and supplemental irrigation, photosynthetic characteristics, yield, population, winter wheat