Abstract: To understand how climate change would affect carbon sequestration rate in main types of forests in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) at different spatial and temporal scales, an ecological process model (3-PG) and exploratory spatial analysis were used to simulate biomass carbon sequestration rate and spatial autocorrelation ofPinus massoniana forests under three climate scenarios (BS, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from 2009 to 2050 based on forest resources planning and design survey datasets. Biomass carbon sequestration rate of P. massoniana forests showed a similar tendency under the three climate scenarios, which decreases dramatically from 4.59 Mg C·hm^-2·a^-1 in 2009 and then levels off in 2026 after changing from positive to negative. In 2050, carbon sequestration rates under BS, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios would be -0.14, -0.15 and -0.15 Mg C·hm^-2·a^-1, respectively. Under a changing climate, carbon sequestration rate would increase by between 8.31% and 9.71% in the P. massoniana forests in the TGRA, and the carbon sequestration rate would increase with altitude. Although there were insignificant spatial autocorrelations of carbon sequestration rate at the global scale, we found a significant spatial autocorrelation at local scale. There was a “High-High” aggregation pattern in the central part (Kaizhou and Wanzhou districts) and the eastern part (Zigui County) of the TGRA, and a “Low-Low” pattern in the southern part (Fengdu County and Banan District) of the TGRA. Yubei, Wanzhou, Wushan, and Zigui were the hotspots, while Banan District and Fengjie County were cold spots. Management of P. massoniana forests in the TGRA should beimproved in the future based on spatial and temporal changes in carbon sequestration rate, with the aim to promote the sustainable development of forestry and guarantee regional ecological security.

Key words: Flaveria bidentis, diversity., rhizosphere soil, functional bacteria