Abstract: With the northern highlands in Yuzhong County of Gansu Province as a case, the f uture scenarios of the social-ecological system in semiarid areas of N orthwest China were analyzed by the method of scenario analysis. On the basis of in situ interviews with farmers, government officials, and academic experts, th e scenario logistic framework were identified by analyzing the driving forces to the system. The key factors and key events representing the system’s future wer e selected, and the future scenarios and their probabilities were constructed an d calculated by using cross-impact analysis. Three scenarios of the social-eco logical system with the maximum probability were congruent with the logical fram ework, and some decision-making suggestions for the ideal scenarios development of the social-ecological system in the semiarid areas in 2020 were put forward.

Key words: CO₂ concentration, Rhizosphere soil, Bacteria, Fungi, Actinomyces