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Chinese Journal of Ecology ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 1636-1643.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202505.005

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Responses of Crepidomanes latealatum distribution patterns to future climate change.

CEN Runlin1,2, YE Tongxin2, ZHANG Xianchun2, ATSUSHI Ebihara3, SHEN Yu1,4*, ZHANG Kaimei1,3*   

  1. (1Co-Innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China; 2State Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China; 3Department of Botany, National Museum of Nature and Science, Tsukuba-shi 305-0005,Japan; 4National Positioning Observation Station of Hung-tse Lake Wetland Ecosystem in Jiangsu Province, Hongze 223100,China).

  • Online:2025-06-10 Published:2025-05-14

Abstract: Crepidomanes latealatum is sensitive to environmental changes. It is important to study the changes in the potential distribution areas of C. latealatum under climate change scenarios for the conservation of its wild resources. Using MaxEnt and ArcGIS software, we predicted changes in the spatial distribution pattern of C. latealatum in the potential distribution area of the world under different climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) in the current (1970-2000) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) based on 1276 geographical distribution data of C. latealatum, combined with 19 climatic factors. We further identified the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. latealatum. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution areas of C. latealatum with high accuracy, with the AUC values of the training and testing sets being 0.962 and 0.966, respectively. The main environmental factors affecting its potential distribution were the warmest quarter, driest month precipitation, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality. C. latealatum is mainly distributed in 3°S-40°N, 95°E-140°E. The MaxEnt model predicted that under the current conditions, the suitable area of C. latealatum was mainly distributed in most parts of Asia, central and western Africa, and southeast Brazil, with a total suitable area of about 9.47×106 km2 and a highly suitable area of about 1.59×106 km2. Under the future climate scenario, the area of suitable areas in tropical East Asia and Africa will increase, while the area of suitable areas in temperate regions such as Europe and America will decrease. In addition, the area of suitable habitat for C. latealatum showed a general trend of first increasing and then decreasing over time under different climate scenarios. Under the background of global climate change, there are great challenges for the conservation of C. latealatum. Based on the current habitat of C. latealatum, protection zones should be established reasonably according to the local climate types, soil conditions, and other environmental factors, to ensure the adaptation of C. latealatum.


Key words: Crepidomanes latealatum, MaxEnt, climate change, prediction of geographical distribution, response