Abstract: The Three-North Afforestation Program (TNAP), the earliest ecological afforestation program in China, aims to improve the ecological environment and promote the socioeconomic development in the ThreeNorth region (TNR). While most previous studies focused on the effects of ecological programs on the ecological environment, few studies have quantified their effects on the socioeconomic development. In this study, the structural equation model was used to quantify the relationships among the TNAP, economic growth, and social development from 2000 to 2016 in eight counties of the Horqin Sandy Land, the critical construction area of the TNAP. The results showed that: (1) the TNAP in this area increased forest area by 370000 hm² and forest cover by 8.52% following a direct investment of 987 million yuan; (2) the TNAP accounted for about 55% contribution of the local social development by improving employment structure and electricity consumption over the 17 years. Moreover, the TNAP increased economic growth with a direct contribution of 4% and an indirect contribution of 52%, which have changed the patterns of employment and industry and increased farmers’ income. All these changes have a positive influence on poverty alleviation. Our results could provide scientific support for further construction of the TNAP and reference for further studies on the effects of ecological programs on socioeconomic development.

Key words: Three-North Afforestation Program, Horqin Sandy Land, structural equation model, social-economic development.