Abstract: A Markov and CLUE-S integrated model was established to simulate the land use/cover pattern in Dunhuang City in 2007, based on the land use/cover change data in 1996 and selecting altitude, slope, distance to river, and distance to road, etc as the driving factors. The simulation results had a high reliability, and matched well with the actual situation. In order to reveal the future changes of the land use pattern in the City, four scenarios were set to predict the land use/cover pattern in the City in 2018. The simulation results showed that whether the scenarios were of natural developmentoriented or only considering ecological protection and economic development, they were only single demand consideration and could not realize sound and rapid development, being of unsustainable development model. However, the comprehensive developmentoriented scenario overcame the shortcomings of the above scenarios, and would be an ideal model of region development, which comprehensively considered the needs of ecological environment restoration and economic development.

Key words: coral artificial propagation, RAS, FITAS, coral disease